* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Markets were generally quiet in overnight trading. There was fresh, weak data coming out of the European Union, as construction output declined by 0.4% in November, for an annual drop of 4.7%. The Euro currency was supported by successful bond auctions by Spain and Ireland on Thursday. In the U.S. focus is presently on corporate earnings reports
being released. On the back burner is the still-unresolved major issue of a permanent agreement by U.S. lawmakers on government taxing and spending measures. It’s likely this situation will heat up in the coming weeks, and such would significantly impact the market place. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, new residential construction, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey, and foreign central bank holdings of U.S. Treasuries.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near a five-year high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1,471.30 and then at 1,480.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 1,457.00 and then at 1,450.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early and are hovering near a three-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week’s high of 2,750.25 and then at 2,778.85. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,716.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,705.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Prices are hovering near a three-month high and bulls have some upside near-term technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 13,410 and then at 13,385. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 13,460 and then at this week’s high of 13,476. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 146 even and then at the overnight high of 146 15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 145 14/32 even and then at this week’s low of 145 5/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.08.0 and then at the overnight high of 132.15.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.01.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today. Greenback bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.95 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.50 and then at this week’s low of 79.40. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today and hit a fresh three-month high overnight. Bulls have upside momentum as a five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $95.00 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at $93.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were weaker overnight on a corrective, profit-taking pullback from recent impressive gains. Grain futures markets have shown upside price action recently to give the bulls early technical clues the grain markets have put in near-term lows. However, the bulls have more work to do to suggest near-term price uptrends can be sustained.Traders will closely scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report and continue to keep an eye on the dry weather pattern developing in Argentina.