* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight news, U.S., European and Asian stocks were weaker and the Euro currency was firmer. U.S. corporate earnings reports are presently in the world spotlight. Also, European auto manufacturers said Wednesday sales of their cars in the European Union were at a 17-year low, dropping by 8% in 2012. The World Bank said late Tuesday that the U.S. tax and spending debacle is constraining worldwide economic growth. The Euro was supported by a European Central Bank official saying the Euro’s exchange rate was not too high. The market place is awaiting Friday’s report from China on its fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth rate. There is a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the consumer price index, real earnings, Treasury international capital data, industrial production and capacity utilization, the Federal Reserve’s beige book, the NAHB housing index and the weekly DOE energy stocks report.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker in early trading today, on some more profit taking after hitting a five-year high on Monday. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,467.20 and then at Monday’s high of 1,471.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 1,457.00 and then at 1,450.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today on some chart consolidation after hitting a three-month high on Monday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,721.50 and then at Tuesday’s high of 2,732.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 2,705.25 and then at 2,698.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on some profit taking and consolidation from recent gains as prices hover near a three-month high. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of 13,385 and then at 13,350. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,455 and then at Tuesday’s high of 13,476. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher again early today on more short covering and some bargain hunting. Bulls are gaining some fresh upside near-term technical momentum.Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 146 17/32 and then at 147 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 146 even and then at the overnight low of 145 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on short covering and bargain hunting. Bulls are gaining upside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.14.0 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.08.0 and then at the overnight low of 132.05.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer early today on short covering in a bear market. Greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 79.94 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.66 and then at this week’s low of 79.40. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today, on some mild profit taking. Bulls still some upside momentum and have the overall near-term technical advantage. In February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $93.62 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $93.00 and then at last week’s low of $92.42. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Markets were firmer again overnight on more short covering and bargain hunting. Grain futures markets have shown good upside price action recently to give the bulls early technical clues the grain markets have put in near-term lows. However, the bulls have more work to do to suggest near-term price uptrends can be sustained. This week’s price action will be extra important in the grain markets. Closes on Friday at or near the weekly highs would be significantly bullish.
