* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
The market place is awaiting the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and following press conference from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Wednesday afternoon. The Federal Reserve’s “Operation Twist” program is scheduled to end this month and the FOMC members will decide whether to extend a bond-buying program. Many believe the Fed will announce it will continue to purchase longer-term U.S. Treasuries, while stopping its sales of shorter-term government debt, as was the case in the Twist operations. The new plan would be ostensibly printing of greenbacks by the Fed and would be raw-commodity and stock market bullish. In overnight news, European stocks and the Euro currency were firmer on ideas the FOMC will implement further easing of U.S. monetary policy. News that Greece did meet its target number for the buying back of its bonds also supported the European markets. Euro zone leaders meet again on Thursday to discuss disbursing more aid to Greece. Meantime, Italian bond yields dropped at the latest 12-month bill auction Wednesday. On the dim side in Europe Wednesday, Euro zone industrial production fell 1.4% in October from September. Also in the U.S., attention of the market place remains on the “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that is fast approaching. While there is still no apparent movement from either side on the matter, President Obama said Tuesday evening he thinks a deal will be reached before the end of the year. The market place presently perceives odds are a bit higher than not that there will be a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff. Still, the overall situation continues to be a bearish drag on many markets, including the raw commodities and stock markets.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit a fresh seven-week high overnight. Bulls have near-term momentum on their side. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in 1,440.00 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,429.30 and then at 1,423.90. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the December high of 2,698.50 and then at 2,715.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,683.75 and then at 2,673.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Prices are firmer and hit a fresh seven-week high overnight. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend as bulls have near-term momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,250 and then at Tuesday’s low of 13,205. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,350 and then at 13,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower again early today and hit a fresh three-week low. Bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 149 even and then at the overnight high of 149 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 148 19/32 and then at 148 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today and hit a fresh two-week low. Bulls are fading but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.14.5 and then at Tuesday’s high of 133.22.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.07.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is lower again in early U.S. trading today. Bulls are fading again. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.23 and then at Tuesday’s high of 80.50. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 79.78 and then at 79.50. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today, on short covering. Bulls have faded recently. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $87.00 and then at $87.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $85.21. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Markets were lower in overnight trading, on some follow-through selling from Tuesday’s downside pressure. Soybean bulls still have some upside technical momentum, but corn and wheat bulls have faded badly recently. Wheat futures on Tuesday saw a bearish downside “breakout” from a well-
established trading range.
