Friday, November 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
It was a quieter overnight session in Asia and Europe, afterthe U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday onThursday and most U.S. markets close early on Friday. Therewas a stronger-than-expected Ifo business confidence readingcoming out of Germany Friday. That data did boost the Eurocurrency against the U.S. dollar. The Standard & Poorscredit rating agency left France’s ratings unchanged in itslatest report, but did warn on Spain and also downgradedthree Spanish banks. The European markets are awaiting yetanother key meeting of Euro zone leaders on Monday, todecide when and how to disburse fresh bailout funds to cash-starved Greece. U.S. economic data due for release Friday islight and includes weekly grain export sales data and theFederal Reserve’s weekly money supply data.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early yesterday, inlight post-holiday trading. The shorter-term moving averages(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early yesterday. The 4-daymoving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slowstochastics) are neutral to bullish early yesterday. Yesterday,shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,400.00 andthen at 1,410.00. Buy stops likely reside just above thoselevels. Downside support for active traders yesterday is locatedat the overnight low of 1,387.10 and then at 1,375.00. Sellstops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’sIntra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early yesterday inquiet, post-holiday trading. The shorter-term movingaverages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early yesterday. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average isbelow the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slowstochastics) are bullish early yesterday. Shorter-term technicalresistance is located at 2,625.00 and then at 2,650.00. Buystops likely reside just above those levels. On thedownside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of2,596.25 and then at 2,577.00. Sell stops are likely locatedjust below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:5.5
Dow futures: Prices are firmer early yesterday. Sell stopslikely reside just below technical support at 12,800 andthen at Wednesday’s low of 12,770. Buy stops likely residejust above technical resistance at 12,850 and then at12,900. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral earlyyesterday, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullishearly yesterday. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early yesterday and areseeing some short covering from recent selling pressure.Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutralearly yesterday. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early yesterday. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 150 20/32 andthen at 151 even. Buy stops likely reside just above thoselevels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 150 even andthen at the overnight low of 149 23/32. Sell stops likelyreside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day MarketRating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early yesterday onshort covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)are neutral early yesterday. The 4-day moving average is belowthe 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral earlyyesterday. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight highof 133.17.5 and then at 133.23.0. Buy stops likely residejust above those levels. Shorter-term technical supportlies at the overnight low of 133.09.0 and then at 133.00.0.Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’sIntra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.trading yesterday. Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for thedollar index are bearish early yesterday. The dollar index findsshorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of80.76 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at theovernight low of 80.56 and then at 80.36. Wyckoff’s IntraDay Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly lower early yesterday. A bullishrounding-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily barchart. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to residejust above resistance at $88.00 and then at $89.00. Look forsell stops just below technical support at the overnight lowof $86.71 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day MarketRating: 5.0
GRAINS
Markets were closed in overnight trading, due to the U.S.Thanksgiving holiday. Expect quieter trading conditionsyesterday. The weaker U.S. dollar index yesterday will limitselling pressure in the grains. Grain market bulls areworking to recover from recent selling pressure, but havemore work to do in the near term, to suggest any priceuptrends can be sustained. It is my bias that there is notstrong downside price pressure left in corn and soybeans.
