(QQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(AAPL)(TSLA)
by DeWayne Reeves
“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” Ben Franklin
Swing Trading The SP500 Emini Futures
We often hear our trading style is too abrupt, lacking in elegance, more like a Pirate’s Smash & Grab.Our standard answer is “Increase the time frame”or, “Learn to appreciate the power of 2 points.” Here’s the rub, many people are convinced that making 20 points on 1 contract is superior to earning 1 point on 20 contracts.
Keep in mind… the payout is identical.
20 points X 1 contract X $50 per contract = $1,000.00
1 point X 20 contracts X $50 per contract = $1,000.00
Which is easier?
Consider this:
- Some days the S&P 500 range is less than 20 points.
- The S&P 500 always has a daily range greater than 2 points.
However, we understand that more points is in fact the goal of many traders and that’s why we developed our CFRN Emini Swing Trader Product. We issued a Swing Trade Sunday prior to the Globex open in an attempt to illustrate one of our Trading Truths –
“You don’t have to know what it going to happen next to make money in the market”. Mark Douglas
It’s true… Traders spend a lot of money on crystal balls in an attempt to know the unknowable, when by simply focusing on that which can be known, your results can be quite reasonable. Before the Globex open on Sunday we did not know which way the market would run. We made a reasonable case for the bullish side but we quickly folded our opinion and put it away. Whatever the market decided to do, not what we thought it would or should do, we were ready for it.
Here’s a peek behind the velveteen curtain…
CFRN Emini Swing Trader
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Emini S&P 500 Swing Trader Alert
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SWING TRADER ALERT
we like points
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Swing Trader Alert:
If still long consider taking some or all profits. The initial target has been reached.
Swing Trader Alert:
The CF_MA1 is now @ 1364.65. Remember, my hourly chart begins on the half hour mark. If the current hour closes below the CF_MA1 on the hourly chart, that would be the first indication that lower prices may be on deck and that might be your signal to exit the trade. The BBC is now at 1357.22 on the hourly chart and that would be the last spot we would anticipate support for the long side of this trade. If you choose the BBC as your Stop Loss, keep in mind that price can spike the BBC by a few points as it prepares to bounce. You have 2 different spots to consider exiting the trade if currently long. As always, your exit should be controlled by a hard stop (server side) based on your own personal risk profile.
If price moves higher, I am watching 1374 as an initial target followed by 1385.
If you have any questions email support@cfrn.net
Swing Trader Alert:
If you are long or are considering being long above 1365 on the “second test” as we discussed last week, the CF_MA1 is currently at 1359 on the hourly chart. Any hourly close below 1356 is valid consideration that lower prices may be on deck. The BBC on the hourly chart is currently at 1354.85. During the past hour the CF_MA1 was at 1356. With the beginning of this hour any stop at the CF_MA1 as discussed in the previous alert can now be reduced by 3 points. The CF_MA1 is the more aggressive Stop Loss level. Less aggressive Stop Loss Level will be just below the BBC.
Your personal risk profile and trading plan should ultimately determine the maximum stop loss you deploy on any trade. Remember, a mental stop is not a real stop. I implore you to always have an active Stop Loss Order (server side) working on your behalf.
Questions? – support@cfrn.net
Swing Trader Alert:
This Swing Trader Alert will deviate from our traditional format. As you know we spent over 30 hours between Thursday and Friday consolidating in and around the Weekly Trading Zone @ 1349/1350. Extended consolidation of this nature can often lead to a significant move. Friday afternoon the market did make a valiant attempt in the the final hour to break free from the range. If you look at the the final hour:
 (ES) 11/15/12 – 11/1612 The final hourly candle shows no wick on top. This means we closed on the high of the hour, the high of the session and the high of the 2 days in question. That equates to a very bullish close on a down week. I will lay out this setup more like a TWEET than a typical SWING TRADE.
When Globex opens Sunday evening, consider being long above 1365 or short below 1338 whichever presents first. If Friday’s closing momentum continues, we will trigger long. If Friday’s close turns out to be a head-fake, we will trigger short and and continue with the downward momentum which overshadowed most of last weeks trading.
Whichever side triggers, we will message through both targets and stops as soon as possible. As always, have a hard stop in place based upon your own risk profile. If your trading plan says that you never risk more than 2% of your account on one trade, that needs to be your hard stop. Another rule of thumb; if you are triggered long, any hourly close back below the CF_MA1 would be your first indication to expect lower prices and to consider exiting the trade. If you are triggered short, any hourly close back above the CF_MA1 is a call for higher prices and should be cause to consider exiting the trade as well.
If you have any questions please email support@cfrn.net .
Prayer Requests:
Please continue to pray for Michael and his family as well as Jim T and his family.
Trading Plan:
I hope to finish the transcript of last Week’s Partner Meeting tomorrow. Many of you have emailed and asked for a copy. I will probably post a PDF File in the members area. Once it is completed I will let you know via email.
New Day Session Hours:
We will discuss this in detail on Monday. Monday is the first afternoon that your trading will be impacted by the changes.
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Do not forward, copy, or disclose this material.
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Copyright (C) 2012 CFRN, All rights reserved.
You’re receiving this email as a CFRN Partner.
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As opportunities unfold we will keep you posted.
Trading’s Not Easy – But It Can Be Simple!
