* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight news, the Bank of England kept its key interest rates unchanged, which was expected. The European Central Bank held its monthly meeting on Thursday. The ECB is not expected to make any big changes to monetary policy. However, ECB president Draghi’s press conference will be closely monitored for fresh clues on ECB policy. The Greek parliament did pass fresh austerity measures for that
nation, but violent public protests occurred in Athens in reaction. It was reported Thursday that Greece’s unemployment rate rose to 25.4% in August. There is fresh speculation Spain will not ask for a financial bailout from the European Union this year. Many European Union watchers want Spain to seek assistance because it would trigger the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program and help to lower borrowing costs for financially troubled EU countries. All of the above drove the Euro currency on Thursday to a fresh two-month low against the U.S. dollar. There is a general leadership conference in China starting Thursday. The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will select a new generation of leaders over the next week. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the international trade report.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today, as the market tries to consolidate after big losses Wednesday.The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,400.00 and then at 1,415.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,384.30 and then at 1,375.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today on some short covering. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,625 and then at 2,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 2,599.00 and then at 2,575.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today on short covering and consolidation. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 12,830 and then at 12,800. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,950 and then at 13,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild profit taking after prices hit a two-month high on Wednesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 150 19/32 and then at 151 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 149 31/32 and then at 149 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today and hit a fresh four-week high overnight. The bulls maintain the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.24.0 and then at 133.27.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.14.0 and then at 133.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading today and hit another fresh two-month high overnight. Bulls have good upside momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.11 and then at 81.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.82 and then at 80.50. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today on a corrective bounce from Wednesday’s big losses. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.51 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Markets were slightly higher in overnight trading, on some chart consolidation. Traders are awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report and Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report on the grains. It is my bias that the grain markets do not have strong downside price potential and are likely to work sideways to higher in to the end of the year.
