Oil, Gold, Silver, and Copper Show Technical Weakness

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its lows of the previous 15 weeks, confirming its preexisting bearish trend.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks, confirming its preexisting corrective trend.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks, confirming its preexisting corrective trend.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks, confirming its preexisting bearish trend.

Industrial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bearish again. Price fell below its 200-day SMA.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,408.75) fell 0.31% on Wednesday. SPX closed below its 50-day SMA for 4th consecutive trading day. SPX also closed below its lows of the previous 7 weeks.

NYSE trading volume rose 6% to a level 8% below the 200-day SMA. The volume of declining stocks was significantly greater than the volume of advancing stocks on the NYSE again, indicating that supply was greater than demand.

The SPX clearly shows lower highs and lower lows since its peak at 1474.51 set on 9/14/12 (the day after the Fed’s QE3 generous gift to banks). That is the definition of a downtrend. Each rally attempt has been weaker than the previous one, and each decline has been weaker than the than the previous one. Failed rally attempts and lower lows may lead the bullish majority to question their assumptions.
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The technical condition of the stock market does not support the months-long excessive optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Fed and ECB plans to buy bonds in unlimited quantities (with fiat currencies printed out of thin air and backed by nothing but a theory and a hope) do not guarantee that stock prices will continue to rise, especially now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside correction seems overdue. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1434.31, 50-day SMA
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1375.92, 200-day SMA
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12, thereby turning systematically bearish. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 10/15/12. DBA turned systematically neutral on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. Price remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains well above the 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its lows of the previous 15 weeks on 10/24/12, confirming its preexisting bearish trend. USO turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 10/24/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. GLD turned systematically neutral on 10/23/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bullish on 10/19/12, when the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. GDX/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 .

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 10/24/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. SLV fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. SLV price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12, and SLV crossed above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. Support 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 32.23, 33.23, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. SLV/GLD crossed back above its 200-day SMA on 10/24/12. SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 10/24/12, confirming its preexisting bearish trend. JJC price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this bearish signal may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
10.94% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
8.95% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
8.40% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
4.77% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
4.66% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
2.81% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
5.28% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
4.33% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
2.14% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
4.10% , SNV , SYNOVUS
0.80% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.73% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
0.31% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
2.39% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
0.85% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
1.70% , F , FORD MOTOR
3.64% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
0.82% , HSP , HOSPIRA
3.19% , MAS , MASCO
0.67% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
0.59% , MBI , MBIA
1.49% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
0.65% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
0.71% , BMS , BEMIS
0.77% , MKC , MCCORMICK
0.86% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
0.76% , SNA , SNAP ON
1.59% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
0.42% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.33% , K , KELLOGG
1.41% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
0.95% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
0.96% , A , AGILENT TECH

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-11.80% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-13.50% , UIS , UNISYS
-11.46% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-9.40% , GLW , CORNING
-8.37% , ALTR , ALTERA
-7.45% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-3.41% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-6.12% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-3.52% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-1.01% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-11.88% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-5.62% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-1.17% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-2.69% , XLNX , XILINX
-3.76% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-3.27% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.91% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-2.38% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-3.50% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-0.89% , EMC , EMC
-2.48% , BCR , C R BARD
-3.38% , CSX , CSX
-3.27% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-1.74% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
-1.79% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-1.34% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-1.89% , NBR , NABORS
-2.67% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-2.00% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
-2.78% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-2.37% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-2.32% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.82% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.07% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.07% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.80% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.68% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.66% Australia Index, EWA
0.63% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.60% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.59% China 25 iS, FXI
0.55% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.47% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.39% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.35% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.33% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.31% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.30% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.28% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.23% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.22% Japan Index, EWJ
0.17% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.17% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.13% Dividend International, PID
0.10% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.10% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.09% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.08% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.07% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.06% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.06% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.06% Mexico Index, EWW
0.06% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.06% India PS, PIN
0.05% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.04% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.03% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.01% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.00% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.00% Italy Index, EWI
0.00% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.00% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.02% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.02% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.03% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.04% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.05% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.05% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.07% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.07% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.08% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.08% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.09% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.09% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.10% Water Resources, PHO
-0.12% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.13% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.14% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.14% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.14% Global 100, IOO
-0.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.15% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.15% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.15% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.16% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.16% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.17% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.18% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.19% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.20% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.21% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.21% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.21% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.21% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.21% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.22% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.22% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.24% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.24% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.24% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.25% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.25% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.25% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.26% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.26% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.27% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.27% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.27% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.28% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.28% France Index, EWQ
-0.28% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.28% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.28% Energy Global, IXC
-0.29% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.29% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.30% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.30% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.31% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.31% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.33% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.34% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.34% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.35% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.39% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.39% Canada Index, EWC
-0.42% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.42% Spain Index, EWP
-0.42% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.44% Germany Index, EWG
-0.45% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.46% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.48% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.48% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.48% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.50% Russia MV, RSX
-0.51% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.51% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.51% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.52% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.57% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.58% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.58% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.58% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.62% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.63% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.67% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.72% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.73% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.74% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.77% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.88% Austria Index, EWO
-0.99% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.99% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.01% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.01% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.06% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.16% Networking, IGN
-1.61% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.92% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.99% Transportation Av DJ, IYT