By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.
- Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
- Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
- A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
- Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold bounced around answering the calls of the central banks and the strength and weakness of the USD. In a surprise ending of the week gold closed at 1604.05 up for the day but down for the week, having opened the week at 1624.45 on hopes of FOMC stimulus.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Change % |
||
|
Aug 03, 2012 |
1604.05 |
1590.25 |
1607.45 |
1587.05 |
0.86% |
|
Aug 02, 2012 |
1590.35 |
1603.15 |
1615.85 |
1585.25 |
-0.79% |
|
Aug 01, 2012 |
1603.05 |
1614.35 |
1619.45 |
1593.45 |
-0.71% |
|
Jul 31, 2012 |
1614.45 |
1622.55 |
1629.25 |
1612.05 |
-0.49% |
|
Jul 30, 2012 |
1622.45 |
1624.45 |
1625.95 |
1615.55 |
-0.11% |
Gold prices could rise next week, building on gains posted on Friday, with some market watchers suggesting the yellow metal may test the upper end of the current trading range, which tops out around $1,640 an ounce.
Those market watchers who see higher prices said it’s likely gold will only rise to about $1,630, an area it hasn’t bested since etching the upper band of the trading range, which extends from $1,550 to $1,640.
Prices rose on Friday, supported by a broad-based rally that lifted equities and commodities after a surprisingly strong U.S. employment figure for July. The Bureau of Labor statistics said 163,000 jobs were created last month, far above the consensus of 100,000. The unemployment rate notched up to 8.3% from 8.2%.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 30 – Jul 3 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 30 |
EUR |
Spanish Flash GDP q/q |
-0.4% |
-0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
EUR |
Italian 10-y Bond Auction |
5.96|1.3 |
5.82|1.7 |
||
|
Jul 31 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
65.9 |
61.5 |
62.7 |
|
Aug 1 |
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI |
50.1 |
50.4 |
50.2 |
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.4 |
48.6 |
48.4 |
|
|
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
163K |
121K |
172K |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
49.8 |
50.3 |
49.7 |
|
|
USD |
FOMC Statement |
||||
|
Aug 2 |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
50.9 |
48.2 |
48.2 |
|
EUR |
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction |
6.65|2.4 |
6.43|3.2 |
||
|
GBP |
Asset Purchase Facility |
375B |
375B |
375B |
|
|
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
0.75% |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
||||
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
365K |
375K |
357K |
|
|
Aug 3 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
51.0 |
51.6 |
51.3 |
|
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
163K |
101K |
64K |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.3% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
|
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
52.6 |
52.1 |
52.1 |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011
Average: 1457.33 over this period
Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 6 |
8:30 |
EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
-29.6 |
|
23:01 |
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
1.4% |
|
|
Aug 7 |
7:00 |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
364.9B |
|
7:15 |
CHF |
CPI m/m |
-0.3% |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Industrial Production m/m |
0.8% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
1.2% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
0.6% |
|
|
14:00 |
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
|
|
Aug 8 |
5:45 |
CHF |
SECO Consumer Climate |
-8 |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
BOE Inflation Report |
||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
1.6% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
-0.9% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
1.3% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
Aug 9 |
8:00 |
EUR |
ECB Monthly Bulletin |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.4B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-48.7B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
Aug 10 |
6:45 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production m/m |
-1.9% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
-2.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-2.7% |
|
|
18:00 |
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-59.7B |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 06 09:10 Norway
Aug 07 00:30 Japan
Aug 07 09:15 Austria
Aug 07 14:30 UK
Aug 07 17:00 US
Aug 08 09:30 Germany
Aug 08 10:00 Norway
Aug 08 15:30 Italy
Aug 08 17:00 US
Aug 09 15:30 Italy
Aug 09 17:00 US
Aug 10 10:00 Belgium
Aug 13 09:10 Italy
Aug 13 09:10 Norway
Aug 13 09:30 Germany
Aug 14 09:10 Greece
Aug 14 09:10 Italy
Aug 14 09:30 Belgium
Aug 14 14:30 UK
Aug 15 09:10 Sweden
Aug 16 09:30 UK
Aug 16 15:00 US
Click here a current Gold Chart.
Originally posted here
