By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.
Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention
Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil ended the week on a high note at 91.36, as geopolitical problems in Syria added to the tensions helping to push prices upwards. Inventory for the prior week surprised markets falling more than expected, which also supported price movement. There was some inter week activity based on the strength and weakness of the USD created by central bank information, but little on the eco side to support oil prices. Negative eco data continued to flow from China, which weakened oil prices but the thoughts of monetary stimulus from the PBoC helped again support the price.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Aug 03, 2012 |
91.36 |
87.44 |
91.70 |
87.31 |
4.48% |
|
Aug 02, 2012 |
87.44 |
88.73 |
89.62 |
86.93 |
-1.45% |
|
Aug 01, 2012 |
88.73 |
87.78 |
89.47 |
87.52 |
1.12% |
|
Jul 31, 2012 |
87.75 |
89.62 |
90.30 |
87.31 |
-2.08% |
|
Jul 30, 2012 |
89.61 |
90.02 |
90.83 |
89.35 |
-0.45% |
There was little in the way of actual supply and demand data. On Friday after a surprisingly strong nonfarm report traders moved into the markets with a more positive sentiment pushing up commodities and as the USD weakened crude prices were able to capitalize and showed gains.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weeklyreports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 30 – Jul 3 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 30 |
EUR |
Spanish Flash GDP q/q |
-0.4% |
-0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
EUR |
Italian 10-y Bond Auction |
5.96|1.3 |
5.82|1.7 |
||
|
Jul 31 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
65.9 |
61.5 |
62.7 |
|
Aug 1 |
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI |
50.1 |
50.4 |
50.2 |
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.4 |
48.6 |
48.4 |
|
|
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
163K |
121K |
172K |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
49.8 |
50.3 |
49.7 |
|
|
USD |
FOMC Statement |
||||
|
Aug 2 |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
50.9 |
48.2 |
48.2 |
|
EUR |
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction |
6.65|2.4 |
6.43|3.2 |
||
|
GBP |
Asset Purchase Facility |
375B |
375B |
375B |
|
|
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
0.75% |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
||||
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
365K |
375K |
357K |
|
|
Aug 3 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
51.0 |
51.6 |
51.3 |
|
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
163K |
101K |
64K |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.3% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
|
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
52.6 |
52.1 |
52.1 |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011
Average: 89.58 over this period
Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 6 |
8:30 |
EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
-29.6 |
|
23:01 |
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
1.4% |
|
|
Aug 7 |
7:00 |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
364.9B |
|
7:15 |
CHF |
CPI m/m |
-0.3% |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Industrial Production m/m |
0.8% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
1.2% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
0.6% |
|
|
14:00 |
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
|
|
Aug 8 |
5:45 |
CHF |
SECO Consumer Climate |
-8 |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
BOE Inflation Report |
||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
1.6% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
-0.9% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
1.3% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
Aug 9 |
8:00 |
EUR |
ECB Monthly Bulletin |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.4B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-48.7B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
Aug 10 |
6:45 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production m/m |
-1.9% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
-2.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-2.7% |
|
|
18:00 |
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-59.7B |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 06 09:10 Norway
Aug 07 00:30 Japan
Aug 07 09:15 Austria
Aug 07 14:30 UK
Aug 07 17:00 US
Aug 08 09:30 Germany
Aug 08 10:00 Norway
Aug 08 15:30 Italy
Aug 08 17:00 US
Aug 09 15:30 Italy
Aug 09 17:00 US
Aug 10 10:00 Belgium
Aug 13 09:10 Italy
Aug 13 09:10 Norway
Aug 13 09:30 Germany
Aug 14 09:10 Greece
Aug 14 09:10 Italy
Aug 14 09:30 Belgium
Aug 14 14:30 UK
Aug 15 09:10 Sweden
Aug 16 09:30 UK
Aug 16 15:00 US
Click here a current Crude Oil Chart.
Originally posted here
