By FXEmpire.com
Outlook and Recommendation
The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7846 to close the month, after the euro fell after the July 9th meeting of the Eurogroup produced now results as promised by the EuroFin Summit on June 29th. We do not foresee an imminent EUR collapse, yet we expect EURUSD to trend gradually lower. Meanwhile, it is highly probable that the ECB will resume a more active bond purchase programme in line with practices observed both in the US and the UK. As for the GBP, the fundamental backdrop has deteriorated with slower growth dynamics and aggressive central bank policy; therefore, GBPUSD has dampened, but we expect the GBP to outperform the EUR.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Central Bank Name: Bank of England
Date of next meeting or last meeting: Aug 02 (on August 2nd the bank held rates and policy )
Current Rate: 0.50 % at the time of this writing the BoE met and held rates.
Statement highlights of last meeting: The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to increase the size of its asset purchase programme, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by ?50 billion to a total of ?375 billion. The previous change in Bank Rate was a reduction of 0.5 percentage points to 0.5% on 5 March 2009. A programme of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves was initiated on 5 March 2009. The previous change in the size of that programme was an increase of ?50 billion to a total of ?325 billion on 9 February 2012.
Economic events for the month of August affecting EUR, CHF and GBP
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug 1 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
48.7 |
48.6 |
|
Aug 2 |
7:15 |
CHF |
Retail Sales y/y |
3.6% |
6.2% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
48.3 |
48.2 |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Asset Purchase Facility |
375B |
375B |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
11:45 |
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
12:30 |
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
|||
|
Aug 3 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
51.7 |
51.3 |
|
Aug 7 |
7:00 |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
364.9B |
|
|
7:15 |
CHF |
CPI m/m |
-0.3% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
1.2% |
||
|
Aug 8 |
9:30 |
GBP |
BOE Inflation Report |
||
|
Aug 10 |
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
-2.2% |
|
|
Aug 14 |
8:30 |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
|||
|
Aug 15 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
MPC Meeting Minutes |
|||
|
9:30 |
GBP |
BOE Gov King Speaks |
|||
|
Aug 16 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
|||
|
Aug 22 |
8:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate |
||
|
Aug 23 |
7:30 |
EUR |
German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Revised GDP q/q |
-0.7% |
Click here for updated EUR/GBP News.
Originally posted here
