By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil is trading post release at 88.49 holding tight after the FOMC statement. For more information please see below. The disappointment from the Fed was offset by the oil inventory decline this week
Traders are more or less sitting on the side at this time, waiting for the big event of the day, the FOMC statement due at 2:15 US time from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Regardless of expectation and actions, the markets will react to the statement. We have decided to hold off our daily Fundamental Analysis until after the statement, so that we can add in our expectations and market reactions to Mr. Bernanke’s decisions. Below you will find our daily analysis prior to the release. Followed by an update noted as post release, we will also try to give you up to date pricing as the markets react.
Crude oil prices were trading in thin ranges after the previous session slippage. Nymex crude oil was hovering near the two week low as investors closely watch the US Fed’s and ECB’s monetary policy action and weekly inventory report from EIA. API data released earlier today showed a huge shrinkage in crude oil inventories by 11.6 million barrels, the most since September 2008. EIA is also anticipated to report a drawdown in its report to be released later today.
Today’s inventory release showed:
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 373.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week.
Chairman Bernanke and associates today downgraded their view on the economy but otherwise didn’t make any changes to its key interest rate, low-rate pledge, or asset-buying plans. The FOMC now says “economic activity decelerated somewhat over the first half of the year,” vs. a prior description of saying the “economy has been expanding moderately.” The decision not to extend its low-rate pledge beyond the current “late 2014? was unexpected. The Fed kept its federal funds rate target between 0% and 0.25% and said it “will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.” This was the bare minimum that the markets were expecting, leaving open anticipation for stimulus in September. Overall markets were disappointed.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weeklyreports and we provide daily updates and outlooks
Economic Data August 1, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug. 01 |
KRW |
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
1.5% |
2.0% |
2.2% |
|
KRW |
South Korean CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Manufacturing PMI |
50.10 |
50.30 |
50.20 |
|
|
AUD |
House Price Index (QoQ) |
0.50% |
-0.50% |
-0.10% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
49.50 |
49.50 |
||
|
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
-0.7% |
-0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
44.30 |
44.20 |
44.60 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
43.4 |
43.6 |
43.6 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
43.0 |
43.3 |
43.3 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
44.0 |
44.1 |
44.1 |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.4 |
48.7 |
48.4 |
|
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
163K |
120K |
176K |
Economic Events: (GMT)
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug 2 |
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
353K |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.7% |
||
|
Aug 3 |
12:30 |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
80K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings m/m |
0.3% |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 02 08:30 Spain
Aug 06 09:10 Norway
Aug 07 00:30 Japan
Aug 07 09:15 Austria
Aug 07 14:30 UK
Aug 07 17:00 US
Aug 08 09:30 Germany
Aug 08 10:00 Norway
Aug 08 15:30 Italy
Aug 08 17:00 US
Aug 09 15:30 Italy
Aug 09 17:00 US
Aug 10 10:00 Belgium
Click here to read Crude Oil Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
