By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD set records this week trading at 1.0483 and set to break through to the 1.05 price Monday morning. As markets moved to more risk the commodity currencies were the benefactors. The AUD is beginning to take on the looks of a safe haven currency. Along with its AAA status, Australia seems to be thriving. The RBA held rates and seems to be guiding the country through this difficult economic time.
China is the worrisome part of this equation as the Oz economy is so dependent on its trade with China.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jul 27, 2012 |
1.0483 |
1.0393 |
1.0487 |
1.0386 |
0.87% |
|
Jul 26, 2012 |
1.0393 |
1.0300 |
1.0422 |
1.0292 |
0.89% |
|
Jul 25, 2012 |
1.0301 |
1.0213 |
1.0337 |
1.0177 |
0.85% |
|
Jul 24, 2012 |
1.0214 |
1.0270 |
1.0316 |
1.0211 |
-0.55% |
|
Jul 23, 2012 |
1.0270 |
1.0338 |
1.0340 |
1.0244 |
-0.66% |
We’ll get a better look at how the Chinese and Japanese economies are performing via a bevy of sentiment surveys as China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its July PMI on Tuesday night, and markets will be watching for the degree of disjunction between the official number, which came in at 50.2 in June, and the private sector PMI, which was in sub-50 contraction territory and remained there on its July flash reading (albeit at a marginally higher level than in June – we’ll get a second look at the July private sector PMI on Tuesday as well). Taiwan GDP on Monday night. Japan will release industrial production numbers on Sunday, and its data dump will continue with jobs and household spending released on Monday night and housing starts numbers on Tuesday night. The domestic economy will be front and center in Australia with new home sales (Monday), trade, and retail sales numbers (Wednesday) due out over the course of the week.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 23-27 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 23 |
AUD |
PPI q/q |
0.5% |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
Jul 24 |
USD |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
51.8 |
52.1 |
52.5 |
|
NZD |
Trade Balance |
331M |
77M |
232M |
|
|
JPY |
Trade Balance |
-0.30T |
-0.39T |
-0.62T |
|
|
Jul 25 |
AUD |
CB Leading Index m/m |
0.4% |
-1.3% |
|
|
AUD |
CPI q/q |
0.5% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
350K |
372K |
382K |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
2.7M |
-0.1M |
-0.8M |
|
|
NZD |
Official Cash Rate |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
|
Jul 26 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
-1.1% |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
353K |
381K |
388K |
|
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
-1.4% |
0.6% |
5.4% |
|
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI y/y |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
|
|
JPY |
Retail Sales y/y |
0.2% |
1.2% |
3.6% |
|
|
Jul 27 |
USD |
Advance GDP q/q |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.9% |
|
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
72.0 |
72.0 |
Historical:
Highest: 1.1080USD on Jul 27, 2011
Average: 0.9126 USD over this period
Lowest: 0.6007 USD Oct 27, 2008
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 30 |
23:30 |
JPY |
Household Spending y/y |
4.0% |
|
Jul 31 |
1:00 |
NZD |
NBNZ Business Confidence |
12.6 |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Building Approvals m/m |
27.3% |
|
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Private Sector Credit m/m |
0.5% |
|
|
1:30 |
JPY |
Average Cash Earnings y/y |
-1.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Employment Cost Index q/q |
0.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.0% |
|
|
13:00 |
USD |
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y |
-1.9% |
|
|
13:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.9 |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
62.0 |
|
|
Aug 1 |
1:30 |
AUD |
HPI q/q |
-1.1% |
|
12:15 |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
176K |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
49.7 |
|
|
18:15 |
USD |
FOMC Statement |
||
|
Aug 2 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.5% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-0.29B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.7% |
|
|
23:30 |
AUD |
AIG Services Index |
48.8 |
|
|
Aug 3 |
12:30 |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
80K |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
Click here to read AUD/USD Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
