By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
- European and UK economic data
- Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP bounced around most of the week with the euro heading toward record lows, but negative eco data killing the GPB. Retail sales disappointed and the UK GDP tumbled showing the UK deep in recession. The pair closed at 0.7822
The turnaround came for the pair mid week when at a London conference, ECB President Draghi, pledged to save the monetary union and to use all the tools necessary, saying the bank had the mandate and was not going to sit idly by and allow destruction.
The euro flew pushing to dollar downwards, which allowed the USD/GBP to climb to recent highs. But the euro gathered strength and was able to break through the 1.23 level against the USD and push the GDP down.
This week once again will be the battle of the banks, with the BoE, the ECB and the FOMC meeting and markets expecting action from all three.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jul 27, 2012 |
0.7822 |
0.7829 |
0.7873 |
0.7800 |
-0.09% |
|
Jul 26, 2012 |
0.7829 |
0.7839 |
0.7860 |
0.7816 |
-0.13% |
|
Jul 25, 2012 |
0.7839 |
0.7782 |
0.7854 |
0.7778 |
0.73% |
|
Jul 24, 2012 |
0.7782 |
0.7814 |
0.7820 |
0.7768 |
-0.41% |
|
Jul 23, 2012 |
0.7814 |
0.7770 |
0.7825 |
0.7764 |
0.57% |
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 23-27 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 24 |
EUR |
French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
43.6 |
45.6 |
45.2 |
|
EUR |
French Flash Services PMI |
50.2 |
47.7 |
47.9 |
|
|
EUR |
German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
43.3 |
45.3 |
45.0 |
|
|
EUR |
German Flash Services PMI |
49.7 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
|
|
EUR |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
44.1 |
45.3 |
45.1 |
|
|
EUR |
Flash Services PMI |
47.6 |
47.3 |
47.1 |
|
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
26.3K |
31.4K |
29.6K |
|
|
USD |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
51.8 |
52.1 |
52.5 |
|
|
Jul 25 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate |
103.3 |
104.8 |
105.2 |
|
GBP |
Prelim GDP q/q |
-0.7% |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Order Expectations |
-6 |
-11 |
-11 |
|
|
EUR |
Belgium NBB Business Climate |
-11.3 |
-13.5 |
-13.2 |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
350K |
372K |
382K |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
2.7M |
-0.1M |
-0.8M |
|
|
Jul 26 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
|
EUR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
3.2% |
2.9% |
3.1% |
|
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
-1.1% |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
353K |
381K |
388K |
|
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
1.6% |
0.4% |
1.6% |
|
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
-1.4% |
0.6% |
5.4% |
|
|
Jul 27 |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
CHF |
KOF Economic Barometer |
1.43 |
1.24 |
1.15 |
|
|
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Rate |
24.6% |
24.7% |
24.4% |
|
|
USD |
Advance GDP q/q |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.9% |
|
|
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
72.0 |
72.0 |
Historical:
Highest: 1.2336 EUR on Jun 29, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7770 EUR on June 23, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and CHF
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 30 |
30th-31st |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI m/m |
0.8% |
-0.6% |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
Spanish Flash GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Net Lending to Individuals m/m |
1.3B |
||
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Realized Sales |
42 |
||
|
23:01 |
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence |
-29 |
||
|
Jul 31 |
6:45 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending m/m |
0.4% |
|
|
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
7K |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
2.4% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.1% |
||
|
Aug 1 |
1st-8th |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
1.0% |
|
|
7:15 |
EUR |
Spanish Manufacturing PMI |
41.1 |
||
|
7:45 |
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
44.6 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
48.6 |
||
|
Aug 2 |
7:00 |
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Change |
-98.9K |
|
|
7:15 |
CHF |
Retail Sales y/y |
6.2% |
||
|
7:30 |
CHF |
SVME PMI |
48.1 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
48.2 |
||
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Asset Purchase Facility |
375B |
||
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
11:45 |
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
12:30 |
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
|||
|
Aug 3 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
51.3 |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.6% |
Click here for updated EUR/GBP News.
Originally posted here
