By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
- High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5746 as a weakened USD allowed the GBP to move upwards. There is no support for the increase in strength of the pound except the weakness of the USD. The pound declined all week until statement from the ECB President turned markets upside down. This week UK retail sales disappointed and the release of 2nd quarter GDP showed the UK deep in recession.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jul 27, 2012 |
1.5746 |
1.5682 |
1.5768 |
1.5667 |
0.41% |
|
Jul 26, 2012 |
1.5682 |
1.5486 |
1.5724 |
1.5471 |
1.27% |
|
Jul 25, 2012 |
1.5485 |
1.5498 |
1.5551 |
1.5459 |
-0.08% |
|
Jul 24, 2012 |
1.5498 |
1.5516 |
1.5552 |
1.5487 |
-0.12% |
|
Jul 23, 2012 |
1.5516 |
1.5609 |
1.5611 |
1.5486 |
-0.60% |
Markets are excepting to see direct action by the BoE to stimulate the ailing economy.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weeklyreports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 23-27 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 24 |
EUR |
French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
43.6 |
45.6 |
45.2 |
|
EUR |
French Flash Services PMI |
50.2 |
47.7 |
47.9 |
|
|
EUR |
German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
43.3 |
45.3 |
45.0 |
|
|
EUR |
German Flash Services PMI |
49.7 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
|
|
EUR |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
44.1 |
45.3 |
45.1 |
|
|
EUR |
Flash Services PMI |
47.6 |
47.3 |
47.1 |
|
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
26.3K |
31.4K |
29.6K |
|
|
USD |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
51.8 |
52.1 |
52.5 |
|
|
Jul 25 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate |
103.3 |
104.8 |
105.2 |
|
GBP |
Prelim GDP q/q |
-0.7% |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Order Expectations |
-6 |
-11 |
-11 |
|
|
EUR |
Belgium NBB Business Climate |
-11.3 |
-13.5 |
-13.2 |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
350K |
372K |
382K |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
2.7M |
-0.1M |
-0.8M |
|
|
Jul 26 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
|
EUR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
3.2% |
2.9% |
3.1% |
|
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
-1.1% |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
353K |
381K |
388K |
|
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
1.6% |
0.4% |
1.6% |
|
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
-1.4% |
0.6% |
5.4% |
|
|
Jul 27 |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
CHF |
KOF Economic Barometer |
1.43 |
1.24 |
1.15 |
|
|
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Rate |
24.6% |
24.7% |
24.4% |
|
|
USD |
Advance GDP q/q |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.9% |
|
|
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
72.0 |
72.0 |
Historical:
Highest: 1.681 USD on Nov 17, 2009.
Average: 1.5807 USD over this period
Lowest: 1.3506 USD on Jan 23, 2009.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and CHF
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 30 |
30th-31st |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI m/m |
0.8% |
-0.6% |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
Spanish Flash GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Net Lending to Individuals m/m |
1.3B |
||
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Realized Sales |
42 |
||
|
23:01 |
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence |
-29 |
||
|
Jul 31 |
6:45 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending m/m |
0.4% |
|
|
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
7K |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
2.4% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.1% |
||
|
Aug 1 |
1st-8th |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
1.0% |
|
|
7:15 |
EUR |
Spanish Manufacturing PMI |
41.1 |
||
|
7:45 |
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
44.6 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
48.6 |
||
|
Aug 2 |
7:00 |
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Change |
-98.9K |
|
|
7:15 |
CHF |
Retail Sales y/y |
6.2% |
||
|
7:30 |
CHF |
SVME PMI |
48.1 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
48.2 |
||
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Asset Purchase Facility |
375B |
||
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
11:45 |
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
12:30 |
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
|||
|
Aug 3 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
51.3 |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.6% |
Click here to read GBP/USD Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
