By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.
Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention
Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil traded in a fairly tight range this week, with little in the way of supportive action and data.
Geopolitical rhetoric toned down and supply disruptions and production were non issues. Global growth continued to shrink with word from China that their GDP may fall to 7.4%, the UK sunk deeper into a recession and the US GDP fell to 1.5%
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Change % |
||
|
Jul 27, 2012 |
90.13 |
89.17 |
90.45 |
89.14 |
1.09% |
|
Jul 26, 2012 |
89.16 |
88.77 |
90.47 |
88.07 |
0.44% |
|
Jul 25, 2012 |
88.77 |
88.22 |
89.35 |
86.87 |
0.63% |
|
Jul 24, 2012 |
88.21 |
88.00 |
89.04 |
87.45 |
0.26% |
|
Jul 23, 2012 |
87.98 |
91.25 |
91.36 |
87.81 |
-3.59% |
The thought of stimulus from the Fed, the BoJ, the BoE and the ECB have propped up prices, with central banks making efforts around the global demand may increase.
The EIA reported higher than expected inventories and a drop in demand, which was a negative for oil, but the weakening dollar and the pledged from the ECB to save the monetary union added support in this weeks trading.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weeklyreports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 23-27 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 24 |
EUR |
French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
43.6 |
45.6 |
45.2 |
|
EUR |
French Flash Services PMI |
50.2 |
47.7 |
47.9 |
|
|
EUR |
German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
43.3 |
45.3 |
45.0 |
|
|
EUR |
German Flash Services PMI |
49.7 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
|
|
EUR |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
44.1 |
45.3 |
45.1 |
|
|
EUR |
Flash Services PMI |
47.6 |
47.3 |
47.1 |
|
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
26.3K |
31.4K |
29.6K |
|
|
USD |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
51.8 |
52.1 |
52.5 |
|
|
Jul 25 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate |
103.3 |
104.8 |
105.2 |
|
GBP |
Prelim GDP q/q |
-0.7% |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Order Expectations |
-6 |
-11 |
-11 |
|
|
EUR |
Belgium NBB Business Climate |
-11.3 |
-13.5 |
-13.2 |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
350K |
372K |
382K |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
2.7M |
-0.1M |
-0.8M |
|
|
Jul 26 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
|
EUR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
3.2% |
2.9% |
3.1% |
|
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
-1.1% |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
353K |
381K |
388K |
|
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
1.6% |
0.4% |
1.6% |
|
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
-1.4% |
0.6% |
5.4% |
|
|
Jul 27 |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
CHF |
KOF Economic Barometer |
1.43 |
1.24 |
1.15 |
|
|
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Rate |
24.6% |
24.7% |
24.4% |
|
|
USD |
Advance GDP q/q |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.9% |
|
|
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
72.0 |
72.0 |
Historical:
Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011
Average: 88.78 over this period
Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and CHF
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 30 |
30th-31st |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI m/m |
0.8% |
-0.6% |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
Spanish Flash GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Net Lending to Individuals m/m |
1.3B |
||
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Realized Sales |
42 |
||
|
23:01 |
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence |
-29 |
||
|
Jul 31 |
6:45 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending m/m |
0.4% |
|
|
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
7K |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
2.4% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.1% |
||
|
Aug 1 |
1st-8th |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
1.0% |
|
|
7:15 |
EUR |
Spanish Manufacturing PMI |
41.1 |
||
|
7:45 |
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
44.6 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
48.6 |
||
|
Aug 2 |
7:00 |
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Change |
-98.9K |
|
|
7:15 |
CHF |
Retail Sales y/y |
6.2% |
||
|
7:30 |
CHF |
SVME PMI |
48.1 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
48.2 |
||
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Asset Purchase Facility |
375B |
||
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
11:45 |
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
12:30 |
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
|||
|
Aug 3 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
51.3 |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.6% |
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Click here a current Crude Oil Chart.
Originally posted here
