By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.
Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
- Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/JPY ended the week at 78.49. After breaking out of its trap between the mid to low 79.’s the pair moved right back into another week of range trading, holding between the 78.99 and the 79.50 range bouncing around all week, with a slow downtrend as the JPY continues to build steam. The problem facing the currency remains unknowns from the Bank of Japan and intervention by the Ministry of Finance.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jul 20, 2012 |
78.49 |
78.75 |
78.80 |
78.45 |
-0.32% |
|
Jul 19, 2012 |
78.75 |
78.80 |
78.80 |
78.44 |
-0.07% |
|
Jul 18, 2012 |
78.80 |
79.08 |
79.13 |
78.76 |
-0.36% |
|
Jul 17, 2012 |
79.09 |
78.84 |
79.17 |
78.82 |
0.31% |
|
Jul 16, 2012 |
78.84 |
79.18 |
79.20 |
78.69 |
-0.44% |
Although markets remain in risk aversion, it is a very specific current, drifting towards the JPY, other safe havens are not seeing the same action and this could change quickly.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 16 – 20 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 16 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.4% |
|
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.5% |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
3.9 |
2.3 |
|
|
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
|
NZD |
CPI q/q |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
Jul 17 |
AUD |
New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m |
-0.6% |
2.3% |
|
|
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
CPI m/m |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-0.3% |
|
|
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
55.0B |
45.7B |
27.2B |
|
|
USD |
Capacity Utilization Rate |
78.9% |
79.2% |
78.7% |
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jul 18 |
AUD |
MI Leading Index m/m |
0.8% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
0.77M |
0.78M |
|
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
0.74M |
0.71M |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.8M |
0.5M |
-4.7M |
|
|
Jul 19 |
AUD |
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence |
-2 |
-1 |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
367K |
352K |
|
|
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.37M |
4.64M |
4.62M |
|
|
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
-7.9 |
-16.6 |
|
|
Jul 20 |
AUD |
Import Prices q/q |
2.4% |
1.6% |
-1.2% |
Historical:
Highest: 108.00 on Sep 19, 2008
Average: 87.08over this period
Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 23 |
1:30 |
AUD |
PPI q/q |
-0.3% |
|
Jul 24 |
13:00 |
USD |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
52.5 |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Trade Balance |
301M |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Trade Balance |
-0.66T |
|
|
Jul 25 |
0:00 |
AUD |
CB Leading Index m/m |
-1.4% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
CPI q/q |
0.1% |
|
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Trimmed Mean CPI q/q |
0.3% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
369K |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
21:00 |
NZD |
Official Cash Rate |
2.50% |
|
|
21:00 |
NZD |
RBNZ Rate Statement |
||
|
Jul 26 |
0:10 |
JPY |
BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
0.7% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
5.9% |
|
|
23:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI y/y |
-0.6% |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Retail Sales y/y |
3.6% |
|
|
Jul 27 |
12:30 |
USD |
Advance GDP q/q |
1.9% |
|
13:55 |
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.0 |
Click here for updated USD/JPY News.
Originally posted here
