By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0080 as the USD continues to fall on weakness in the dollar.
It is CAD bullish over the medium term that the BoC remains the most hawkish of the advanced economies central banks. Yesterday’s MPR highlighted most of what was released in the statement on Tuesday, including that Canadian and global growth will be slightly lower, inflationary pressures are benign and it will take a little bit longer for the economy to reach full capacity. Three important subthemes in the MPR those are positive for the Canadian economy and CAD:
1) The BoC expects the spread between Brent and WTI oil to narrow from $16 to $7.
2) The BoC sees a positive path for Canada’s terms of trade.
3) The economy is operating just 0.5 pct points below capacity.
At the conclusion of his press conference we thought that Carney sounded more hawkish than the written text when he commented that financial conditions in Canada are accommodative, there is only a small amount of excess capacity in the economy, rates are very low and the BoC sets policy in the context of inflation and not in comparison to what other global central banks are doing. The response in markets was appropriate, CAD made unremarkable gains, while expectations for interest rates in Canada remained relatively stable
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data July 19, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul. 19 |
AUD |
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence |
-2.00 |
-1.00 |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
1.6% |
2.4% |
2.1% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
386K |
365K |
352K |
|
|
CAD |
Wholesale Sales (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3314K |
3299K |
3313K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 20 |
6:00 |
EUR |
-0.3% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
15.6B |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jul 23- n/a UK
Jul 23 09:30 Germany
Jul 24 08:30 Netherlands
Jul 24 08:30 Spain
Jul 24 15:30 Italy
Jul 24 17:00 US
Jul 25 09:30 Germany
Jul 25 15:30 Italy
Jul 25 17:00 US
Jul 26 00:30 Japan
Jul 26 09:10 Italy
Jul 27 09:10 Italy
Jul 27 17:00 US
Click here a current USD/CAD Chart.
Originally posted here
