By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5585 down 0.0051 after the US Fed statement. Today, prices have to be quoted as before, during or after as markets fluctuated a great deal, but all on positioning and repositioning based on the Fed testimony.
UK inflation surprised substantially on the downside in June – the 3rd downward surprise in a row – falling to 2.4% y/y from 2.8% y/y on the CPI measure and 2.8% y/y from 3.1% using the RPI measure. It has been almost 5 years since we had a run of downward surprises like this. The key reasons for the downward surprise were lower food and petrol prices. Markets paid little attention. The focus remained on the Fed. Later today Fed Chief Bernanke today sketched out for members of Congress the weaker economic outlook, and stressed that the central bank is prepared to take further action to try to give the recovery a jolt. In testimony prepared for the Senate Banking Committee as part of his twice-per-year report on Fed monetary policy issues, Bernanke said that the reduction in the unemployment rate in coming months seems likely to be “frustratingly slow.” Bernanke urged Congress to move right away to address the looming fiscal cliff, saying it threatened the recovery. He said that the European debt crisis was also a significant threat. The Fed chairman gave no indication outside of what was provided in the June FOMC minutes of any action or consideration, disappointing markets.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data Reported on July 17, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul. 17 |
AUD |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|||
|
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
2.3% |
2.2% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.8% |
2.8% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.4% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-19.6 |
-20.0 |
-16.9 |
|
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-22.3 |
-28.0 |
-20.1 |
|
|
GBP |
BoE Gov King Speaks |
||||
|
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
|
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
-0.40% |
1.00% |
-1.10% |
||
|
USD |
CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.6% |
1.7% |
|
|
USD |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.2% |
2.2% |
2.3% |
|
|
CAD |
Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
|
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
55.0B |
45.7B |
27.2B |
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 18 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
8.1K |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
|
|
9:00 |
CHF |
ZEW Economic Expectations |
-43.4 |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.78M |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.71M |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.7M |
|
|
Jul 19 |
6:00 |
CHF |
Trade Balance |
2.48B |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Current Account |
4.6B |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
1.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.55M |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-16.6 |
|
|
Jul 20 |
6:00 |
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
-0.3% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
15.6B |
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Originally posted here
