By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP traded up a bit today, as the euro garnered some strength earlier in the day as investors hedged bets before the Fed testimony. The pair are trading at 0.7844
Although, UK inflation surprised substantially on the downside in June – the 3rd downward surprise in a row – falling to 2.4% y/y from 2.8% y/y on the CPI measure and 2.8% y/y from 3.1% y/y using the RPI measure. It has been almost 5 years since we had a run of downward surprises like this. The key reasons for the downward surprise were lower food and petrol prices; it offered virtually no support for the pound.
All eyes and ears were focused on the Fed, who did not have much to say, except that the EU crisis continued to put pressure on the economy of the US and that the Fed was willing to act when necessary, no more then what was said in the June FOMC minutes.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data Reported on July 17, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul. 17 |
AUD |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|||
|
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
2.3% |
2.2% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.8% |
2.8% |
|
|
GBP |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.4% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-19.6 |
-20.0 |
-16.9 |
|
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-22.3 |
-28.0 |
-20.1 |
|
|
GBP |
BoE Gov King Speaks |
||||
|
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
|
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
-0.40% |
1.00% |
-1.10% |
||
|
USD |
CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.6% |
1.7% |
|
|
USD |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.2% |
2.2% |
2.3% |
|
|
CAD |
Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
|
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
55.0B |
45.7B |
27.2B |
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 18 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
8.1K |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
|
|
9:00 |
CHF |
ZEW Economic Expectations |
-43.4 |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.78M |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.71M |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.7M |
|
|
Jul 19 |
6:00 |
CHF |
Trade Balance |
2.48B |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Current Account |
4.6B |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
1.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.55M |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-16.6 |
|
|
Jul 20 |
6:00 |
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
-0.3% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
15.6B |
Click here for updated EUR/GBP News.
Originally posted here
