By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.
Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention
Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil was able to climb this week on the geopolitical problems in the early part of the week, as the US turned up the heat on Iran, implementing more controls for the embargo. Crude closed the week at 87.07.
Also, investors on Friday, moved in to the markets in search of more risk, with the Chinese GDP coming in at forecast, investors were able to breathe a sigh of relief. Although the IMF this week is expected to lower global growth forecast. The EIA this week also reduced their crude oil demand forecast for the balance of 2012.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jul 13, 2012 |
87.07 |
85.67 |
87.60 |
85.63 |
1.65% |
|
Jul 12, 2012 |
85.66 |
86.01 |
86.36 |
84.27 |
-0.41% |
|
Jul 11, 2012 |
86.00 |
84.27 |
86.48 |
84.12 |
1.99% |
|
Jul 10, 2012 |
84.33 |
85.13 |
85.94 |
83.67 |
-1.00% |
|
Jul 09, 2012 |
85.17 |
84.34 |
86.48 |
84.26 |
0.96% |
The recent tensions between Syria and Turkey may have broader implications for stability in the Middle East, even though neither country is a significant oil exporter.
With OPEC spare capacity at extremely low levels (2.38 mmbbl /d as of May), the oil market is vulnerable to supply shocks.
Moreover, the thin cushion gives the cartel–particularly Saudi Arabia–a substantial amount of control over the direction of prices. For much of the year, the Saudis have chosen to open the spigots to lower prices. After the recent correction, the country may switch gears to support prices.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weeklyreports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 9 – 13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 9 |
EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
-29.6 |
-26.3 |
-28.9 |
|
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
1.4% |
1.3% |
||
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-22% |
-15% |
-17% |
|
|
Jul 10 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production m/m |
-1.9% |
-0.9% |
1.4% |
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial Production m/m |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
-2.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
1.2% |
0.1% |
-0.8% |
|
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.4B |
-9.0B |
-9.7B |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
||
|
Jul 11 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-48.7B |
-48.5B |
-50.6B |
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.7M |
-1.3M |
-4.3M |
|
|
Jul 12 |
EUR |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.6% |
0.0% |
-1.1% |
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
350K |
376K |
376K |
|
|
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-2.7% |
-1.5% |
-1.2% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-59.7B |
-91.7B |
-124.6B |
|
|
Jul 13 |
CHF |
PPI m/m |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
-0.5% |
-1.0% |
|
|
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.0 |
73.5 |
73.2 |
Historical:
Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011
Average: 88.78 over this period
Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 16 |
7:15 |
CHF |
Industrial Production q/q |
-7.5% |
8.8% |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI y/y |
2.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
2.3 |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.4% |
||
|
Jul 17 |
8:30 |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
2.8% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-16.9 |
||
|
9:15 |
ALL |
G7 Meetings |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
CPI m/m |
-0.3% |
||
|
13:00 |
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
25.6B |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
-0.1% |
||
|
Jul 18 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
8.1K |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
||
|
9:00 |
CHF |
ZEW Economic Expectations |
-43.4 |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.78M |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.71M |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.7M |
||
|
Jul 19 |
6:00 |
CHF |
Trade Balance |
2.48B |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Current Account |
4.6B |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
1.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.55M |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-16.6 |
||
|
Jul 20 |
6:00 |
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
-0.3% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
15.6B |
Click here to read Crude Oil Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
