By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.
Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
- Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/JPY is trading at 79.19. The yen was strong against the USD all week, beginning the week at 79.57 and continuing to push the USD all week, in small increments as risk aversion remained the main focus. The pair continues to trading in the low 79 range.
This week the BoJ concluded their two day meeting making no changes to policy or rates, except some adjustments.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jul 13, 2012 |
79.19 |
79.33 |
79.39 |
79.08 |
-0.18% |
|
Jul 12, 2012 |
79.33 |
79.61 |
79.96 |
79.19 |
-0.35% |
|
Jul 11, 2012 |
79.61 |
79.36 |
79.79 |
79.14 |
0.32% |
|
Jul 10, 2012 |
79.36 |
79.57 |
79.58 |
79.21 |
-0.27% |
|
Jul 09, 2012 |
79.57 |
79.50 |
79.76 |
79.48 |
0.09% |
On Friday, after release of the Chinese GDP investors began moving away from risk looking for higher risk assets. The pair was not able to rebound but are expected to in the coming week. Markets were so focused on Chinese data that poor eco data in Japan was ignored. Japanese Industrial Production fell in a report on Friday.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 9 – 13 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 9 |
AUD |
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m |
-1.2% |
-2.6% |
|
|
NZD |
REINZ HPI m/m |
0.3% |
1.7% |
||
|
NZD |
NZIER Business Confidence |
-4 |
13 |
||
|
Jul 10 |
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
-3 |
-2 |
|
|
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m |
0.7% |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jul 11 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
3.7% |
0.3% |
|
|
AUD |
Home Loans m/m |
-1.2% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-48.7B |
-48.5B |
-50.6B |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.7M |
-1.3M |
-4.3M |
|
|
Jul 12 |
AUD |
MI Inflation Expectations |
3.3% |
2.3% |
|
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
-27.0K |
0.2K |
27.8K |
|
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.2% |
5.2% |
5.1% |
|
|
JPY |
Overnight Call Rate |
<0.10% |
<0.10% |
<0.10% |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
350K |
376K |
376K |
|
|
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-2.7% |
-1.5% |
-1.2% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-59.7B |
-91.7B |
-124.6B |
|
|
Jul 13 |
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
-0.5% |
-1.0% |
|
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.0 |
73.5 |
73.2 |
Historical:
Highest: 108.00 on Sep 19, 2008
Average: 87.08over this period
Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 16 |
12:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.2% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
2.3 |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.4% |
|
|
22:45 |
NZD |
CPI q/q |
0.5% |
|
|
Jul 17 |
1:30 |
AUD |
New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m |
2.4% |
|
9:15 |
ALL |
G7 Meetings |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
CPI m/m |
-0.3% |
|
|
13:00 |
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
25.6B |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
Capacity Utilization Rate |
79.0% |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
-0.1% |
|
|
Jul 18 |
0:30 |
AUD |
MI Leading Index m/m |
0.5% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.78M |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.71M |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.7M |
|
|
Jul 19 |
1:30 |
AUD |
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence |
-1 |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.55M |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-16.6 |
|
|
Jul 20 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Import Prices q/q |
-1.2% |
Click here for updated USD/JPY News.
Originally posted here
