By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil declined today, as geopolitical turmoil subsided and the strike in Norway has been ordered to arbitration and strikers have returned to work. Oil fell .098 to trade at 85.01. The unexpectedly rise in industrial production in Italy and UK had little effect on the price of oil. The decline in China’s crude oil imports for the month of June and lower than expected eco data, weakened the commodity. However, expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventories along with weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in crude prices.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly inventories today are expected to decline by 1.1 million barrels for the week ending on 6th July 2012. This report has been inaccurate more the right over the past few months. Markets do not put much weight on the API.
Worries over a slowdown in China weighed on the market sentiments today. China’s trade balance data (see chart below) released earlier today showed that imports rose less than anticipated and export grew at a slower pace in June adding to worries over demand from the one of the top consumers of commodities. However, the Euro and commodities were seen trimming losses by the afternoon following the deal to help the financially struggling Spain and expectations that Germany may agree to use the bailout funds more liberally. Tracking gains in Euro, spot gold inched higher for the second consecutive day paring the initial losses. Spot silver too followed suit.
Base metals traded with a negative bias in LME following the weak data from China amid dismal global economic scenario. Copper edged down as imports of the red metal by China fell 17.5 per cent in June.
However, the weak data have injected some optimism that China may resort to aggressive monetary easing policies to prop up economic growth. Meanwhile, the US crude oil inventories are seen falling for the third consecutive week, which is likely to support prices.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data July 10, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul. 10 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-22% |
-16% |
-17% |
|
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
-3 |
-2 |
||
|
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
31.73B |
21.00B |
18.70B |
|
|
DKK |
Danish CPI (YoY) |
2.20% |
2.20% |
2.10% |
|
|
NOK |
Norwegian Core Inflation (MoM) |
-0.30% |
0.10% |
0.40% |
|
|
NOK |
Norwegian CPI (MoM) |
-0.50% |
-0.10% |
0.00% |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.0% |
-0.2% |
-0.4% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
1.2% |
0.1% |
-0.8% |
|
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.4B |
-9.0B |
-9.7B |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-1.6% |
-2.1% |
-2.0% |
|
|
Housing Starts |
222.7K |
205.0K |
217.4K |
||
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Click here a current Crude Oil Chart.
Originally posted here
