By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/GBP soared to end the month at 0.8066. In the early morning hours today, the Finance Ministers released a plan for a short term solution for the EU; the plan was precise and well developed and hailed as a major achievement by the markets. It really took traders by surprise. The plan incorporated the following.
a) The statement released early morning on Friday listed the below points, but said these have not been fully approved.
b) A proposal for a single bank supervisor (including the ECB).
c) Once a single bank supervisor is established, the ESM could have the possibility to recapitalize banks directly.
d) The EFSF will be used until the ESM becomes available.
e) EFSF loans will be then transferred to the ESM without any seniority (the ESM as currently structured has seniority).
f) Strong commitment to do what is necessary.
g) The above to be implemented by July 9, 2012.
In the UK consumer confidence remains weak, as the GfK indicator is unchanged at -29. The BoE has also released its financial stability report, with Governor King urging the UK banking sector to build capital buffers given the weak economic outlook.
Movement over the next week will be further driven by domestic factors given the release of PMI’s as well as the BoE’s policy announcement. Expectations of further easing are widespread, as 19 out of 20 economists surveyed expect an increase in asset purchases. BoE Governor King had voted for a ?50bn increase at the last meeting, which is now the median estimate.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 29, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
JPY |
Unemployment Rate |
4.4% |
4.6% |
4.6% |
|
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.6% |
-0.7% |
-0.8% |
|
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-3.1% |
-2.8% |
-0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
0.7% |
|
|
CHF |
KOF Leading Indicators |
1.16 |
0.85 |
0.80 |
|
|
NOK |
Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.70% |
0.50% |
-0.20% |
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
||
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
NR |
52.5 |
52.7 |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
NR |
74.1 |
74.1 |
Upcoming Economic Events for Monday July 2, 2012
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
JPY |
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index |
-4 |
-4 |
||
|
CHF |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
4.5% |
0.1% |
||
|
CHF |
SVME PMI |
45.0 |
45.4 |
||
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.1% |
11.0% |
||
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
52.5 |
53.5 |
Government Bond Auctions
Jul 02 09:10 Norway
Jul 03 08:30 Holland
Jul 03 09:15 Austria
Jul 03 09:30 Belgium
Jul 03 09:30 UK
Jul 03 14:30 UK
Jul 04 09:30 UK
Jul 05 08:30 Spain
Jul 05 08:50 France
Jul 05 15:00 US
Click here for updated EUR/GBP News.
Originally posted here
