By FXEmpire.com
Introduction:The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
- European and UK economic data
- Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP ended the quarter at 0.8062 as the euro soared from early morning Friday, after the pre dawn press conference by the EU Ministers introducing their “plan” to save the EU. This is the first time that the EU has proposed a short term immediate fix for the economic problems of its members. The plan was precise, comprehensive and goes into effect on July 9, 2012. Traders were caught by surprise, as no news of this plan had been leaked or released and all week leading up to the meeting, the Ministers was bickering and arguing and it looked like the Summit would just be another of the many with grand schemes but little action.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Change % |
||
|
Jun 29, 2012 |
0.8062 |
0.8018 |
0.8094 |
0.8010 |
0.55% |
|
Jun 28, 2012 |
0.8018 |
0.8009 |
0.8029 |
0.7986 |
0.10% |
|
Jun 27, 2012 |
0.8010 |
0.7986 |
0.8016 |
0.7986 |
0.29% |
|
Jun 26, 2012 |
0.7987 |
0.8033 |
0.8039 |
0.7985 |
-0.56% |
|
Jun 25, 2012 |
0.8032 |
0.8047 |
0.8048 |
0.8020 |
-0.17% |
This week brings two exciting events, that will effect this pair, the ECB and the BoE meetings. Markets are expecting action from both banks, an interest reduction from the ECB and additional monetary stimulus from the BoE.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of June 25 – 29 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB and the Franc
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 26 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.8 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
|
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
15.6B |
13.6B |
-19.9B |
|
|
Jun 27 |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
-0.2% |
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
30.2K |
32.8K |
32.1K |
|
|
GBP |
CBI Realized Sales |
42 |
12 |
21 |
|
|
Jun 28 |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI m/m |
-0.6% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
7K |
4K |
1K |
|
|
GBP |
Current Account |
-11.2B |
-8.9B |
-7.2B |
|
|
GBP |
Final GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Final GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence |
-29 |
-30 |
-29 |
|
|
EUR |
German Retail Sales m/m |
-0.3% |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jun 29 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending m/m |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.7% |
|
CHF |
KOF Economic Barometer |
1.16 |
0.87 |
0.80 |
|
|
EUR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
2.9% |
2.4% |
2.5% |
|
|
EUR |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
2.4% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
Historical:
Highest: 1.2336 EUR on Jun 29, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7950EUR on May 16, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 2 |
3:15am |
CHF |
Retail Sales y/y |
0.9% |
0.1% |
|
3:30am |
CHF |
SVME PMI |
44.6 |
45.4 |
|
|
3:45am |
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
44.6 |
44.8 |
|
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
46.7 |
45.9 |
|
|
5:00am |
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.1% |
11.0% |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
53.5 |
|
|
Jul 3 |
3rd-6th |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
-0.3% |
0.5% |
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
53.1 |
54.4 |
|
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Net Lending to Individuals m/m |
1.1B |
1.4B |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
Jul 4 Jul 5 |
4:00am |
EUR |
Final Services PMI |
46.8 |
46.8 |
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Services PMI |
53.0 |
53.3 |
|
|
5:00am |
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.2% |
-1.0% |
|
|
6:00am |
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
0.2% |
-1.9% |
|
|
7:00am |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
7:45am |
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
0.75% |
1.00% |
|
|
8:15am |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
101K |
133K |
|
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
385K |
386K |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.1 |
53.7 |
|
|
11:00am |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.1M |
||
|
Jul 6 |
3:00am |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
303.8B |
|
|
3:15am |
CHF |
CPI m/m |
-0.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
4:30am |
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
-2.1% |
-2.5% |
|
|
6:00am |
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
0.3% |
-2.2% |
|
|
8:30am |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
92K |
69K |
|
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.2% |
Click here a current EUR/GBP Chart.
Originally posted here
