By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.
- Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
- Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
- A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
- Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold soared on Friday, after a pre dawn press conference from the EU Summit announced an immediate and cohesive plan to support failing economies and reduce contagion and risk and at the same to kick start the EU economies. Overnight investor confidence rose dramatically. With all assets gaining strongly, gold opened higher at 1585. After a small dip quickly after to an intraday low of 1583.25, the metal continued its rise alongside strong gains in equities, eventually reaching an intraday high of 1606.75/1607.75 late in the session. Gold closed the week shortly after at 1602.50/1603.50
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jun 29, 2012 |
1597.85 |
1553.35 |
1607.45 |
1551.35 |
2.86% |
|
Jun 28, 2012 |
1553.45 |
1575.15 |
1579.55 |
1548.45 |
-1.37% |
|
Jun 27, 2012 |
1575.05 |
1572.45 |
1582.85 |
1563.25 |
0.17% |
|
Jun 26, 2012 |
1572.35 |
1585.75 |
1587.55 |
1568.55 |
-0.83% |
|
Jun 25, 2012 |
1585.55 |
1570.45 |
1588.95 |
1566.95 |
0.97% |
All week gold had trading in a tight range around the 1560 price as it continued on a down trend, after Thursday’s dramatic fall, it looked like gold would end the month and the quarter down, when Friday saw gold make a drastic turn around.
The new plan for the EU is an supervisory bank to oversee and do what is necessary to make sure that markets are protected and to foster growth. The new bank will have the capability to use funds from the emergency EU fund mechanism and the power to do what is necessary.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of June 25 – 29 actual v. forecast for the US Dollar
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 25 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
369K |
347K |
343K |
|
Jun 26 |
USD |
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y |
-1.9% |
-2.4% |
-2.6% |
|
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
62.0 |
63.8 |
64.4 |
|
|
Jun 27 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
0.4% |
0.9% |
-0.6% |
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
1.1% |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
5.9% |
1.2% |
-5.5% |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.1M |
-0.5M |
2.9M |
|
|
Jun 28 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
385K |
392K |
|
USD |
Final GDP q/q |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
|
Jun 29 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.9 |
52.8 |
52.7 |
|
|
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
73.2 |
74.2 |
74.1 |
Historical
Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011
Average: 1418.48 over this period
Lowest: 1026.95 on Oct 28, 2009
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 2 |
3:15am |
CHF |
Retail Sales y/y |
0.9% |
0.1% |
|
3:30am |
CHF |
SVME PMI |
44.6 |
45.4 |
|
|
3:45am |
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
44.6 |
44.8 |
|
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
46.7 |
45.9 |
|
|
5:00am |
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.1% |
11.0% |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
53.5 |
|
|
Jul 3 |
3rd-6th |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
-0.3% |
0.5% |
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
53.1 |
54.4 |
|
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Net Lending to Individuals m/m |
1.1B |
1.4B |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
Jul 4 Jul 5 |
4:00am |
EUR |
Final Services PMI |
46.8 |
46.8 |
|
4:30am |
GBP |
Services PMI |
53.0 |
53.3 |
|
|
5:00am |
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.2% |
-1.0% |
|
|
6:00am |
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
0.2% |
-1.9% |
|
|
7:00am |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
7:45am |
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
0.75% |
1.00% |
|
|
8:15am |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
101K |
133K |
|
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
385K |
386K |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.1 |
53.7 |
|
|
11:00am |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.1M |
||
|
Jul 6 |
3:00am |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
303.8B |
|
|
3:15am |
CHF |
CPI m/m |
-0.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
4:30am |
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
-2.1% |
-2.5% |
|
|
6:00am |
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
0.3% |
-2.2% |
|
|
8:30am |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
92K |
69K |
|
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.2% |
Click here for updated Gold News.
Originally posted here
