By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold continued to decline trading at 1571.25. Spot gold held steady on course of a consolidation in the last five straight sessions. Gold lost some of its safe haven appeal as investors are selling gold to cover the losses in other markets. Lingering Euro zone debt crisis and US Fed’s decision to take modest steps to revive the economy also influenced prices. Yesterday, US durable goods orders data showed a better than expected figures. Weak currency weighed on physical buying from India, one of the world’s top consumers of the gold.
Disappointing German employment and deflationary pressures, combined with rumors that JP Morgan’s trading losses are $9bn, the looming EU summit, rising Italian bond yields and an absence of tier one fundamental data have markets shedding risk into today’s open. Accordingly, equities and commodities are weak, volatility is slightly higher and the USD and JPY are strong. While JPY is notably strong, up 0.4% on strong retail sales and risk aversion.
The US has posted a series of positive eco data ranging from housing to durable goods, today’s GDP submission was higher than expected but jobs data was slightly lower but close enough to be considered market neutral.
The biggest risk factors facing the markets come from the EU (circus) Summit, where Spain and Italy are about to force the EU Finance Ministers into action and not apathy. Italy’s soaring bond rates will also push Monti into the conversations.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 28, 2012 actual v. forecast… and you didn’t think it could get worse. The German workhorse breaks a leg…
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Jun. 28 |
JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
3.6% |
3.0% |
5.7% |
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
0.7% |
6.9% |
||
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Rate |
6.8% |
6.7% |
6.8% |
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
7K |
5K |
0K |
|
GBP |
Business Investment (QoQ) |
1.9% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
|
GBP |
Current Account |
-11.2B |
-9.0B |
-7.2B |
|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
GBP |
GDP (YoY) |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
EUR |
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
6.19% |
6.03% |
And the good news is or almost good news
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
386K |
385K |
392K |
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
2.0% |
1.7% |
1.7% |
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3296K |
3280K |
3311K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
Jun 29 |
29th-4th |
EUR |
0.6% |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
0.6% |
||
7:00 |
CHF |
0.81 |
||
8:00 |
EUR |
2.5% |
||
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
0.3% |
||
13:45 |
USD |
52.7 |
||
13:55 |
USD |
74.1 |
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Originally posted here