By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold continued to decline trading at 1571.25. Spot gold held steady on course of a consolidation in the last five straight sessions. Gold lost some of its safe haven appeal as investors are selling gold to cover the losses in other markets. Lingering Euro zone debt crisis and US Fed’s decision to take modest steps to revive the economy also influenced prices. Yesterday, US durable goods orders data showed a better than expected figures. Weak currency weighed on physical buying from India, one of the world’s top consumers of the gold.

Disappointing German employment and deflationary pressures, combined with rumors that JP Morgan’s trading losses are $9bn, the looming EU summit, rising Italian bond yields and an absence of tier one fundamental data have markets shedding risk into today’s open. Accordingly, equities and commodities are weak, volatility is slightly higher and the USD and JPY are strong. While JPY is notably strong, up 0.4% on strong retail sales and risk aversion.

The US has posted a series of positive eco data ranging from housing to durable goods, today’s GDP submission was higher than expected but jobs data was slightly lower but close enough to be considered market neutral.

The biggest risk factors facing the markets come from the EU (circus) Summit, where Spain and Italy are about to force the EU Finance Ministers into action and not apathy. Italy’s soaring bond rates will also push Monti into the conversations.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 28, 2012 actual v. forecast… and you didn’t think it could get worse. The German workhorse breaks a leg…

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun. 28

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY)

3.6%

3.0%

5.7%

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

0.7%

6.9%

GBP

Nationwide HPI (MoM)

-0.6%

0.1%

0.2%

EUR

German Unemployment Rate

6.8%

6.7%

6.8%

EUR

German Unemployment Change

7K

5K

0K

GBP

Business Investment (QoQ)

1.9%

3.6%

3.6%

GBP

Current Account

-11.2B

-9.0B

-7.2B

GBP

GDP (QoQ)

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.3%

GBP

GDP (YoY)

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.1%

EUR

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction

6.19%

6.03%

And the good news is or almost good news

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

386K

385K

392K

USD

GDP Price Index (QoQ)

2.0%

1.7%

1.7%

USD

GDP (QoQ)

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3296K

3280K

3311K

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Jun 29

29th-4th

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

0.6%

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

0.6%

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

0.81

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

2.5%

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

2.4%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.1%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

52.7

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

74.1

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Originally posted here