By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD has seen small gains and small losses most of the day, until US markets opened and the euro continued to fall trading at 1.2485, although it is still close to the all important 1.25 number.
The euro was able to hold its price, even as Italian 10-year yields push back above 6% and Spanish 10-year yields push back towards 7.0% and Egan Jones downgrades Germany. News flow has been more limited today, with headlines from Chancellor Merkel that she will not see Eurobonds in her lifetime offset by what we believe is Germany’s stance that a fiscal union will only follow once a proper framework, including enforcement mechanism for fiscal budgets, is developed. This would help to avert a EUR collapse and is our base case in the medium term. There is also a focus on yesterday’s release of the European Commission, Eurogroup and ECB’s report “towards a genuine economic and monetary union”.
There is very little in the way of eco data, mostly tier two releases including the US durable goods report, which is a bit confusing as Core was under expectations but overall durable goods was well above forecast, the overall report had a positive effect on the markets.
Tomorrow the circus begins to unfold, not much is expected in results but a lot of news flow and press coverage, a lot of misinformation and he said, she said, as Finance Ministers all juggle for attention and to press their own agendas with the EU and at home.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Economic Releases for June 26, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
Jun. 27 |
EUR |
German Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.7% |
-0.7% |
-0.5% |
||
|
EUR |
Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) |
-4.9% |
-8.2% |
-10.0% |
|||
|
EUR |
Italian Business Confidence |
88.9 |
85.5 |
86.6 |
|||
|
NOK |
Norwegian Unemployment Rate |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
|||
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
30.2K |
32.8K |
32.1K |
|||
|
EUR |
Italian 6-Month BOT Auction |
2.957% |
2.104% |
||||
|
GBP |
CBI Distributive Trades Survey |
42 |
10 |
21 |
|||
|
USD |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
-7.1% |
-0.8% |
||||
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
-0.2% |
|||
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.8% |
1.9% |
|||
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.7% |
-0.6% |
|||
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
1.1% |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|||
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jun 28 |
7:55 |
EUR |
0K |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-8.5B |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
|||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-0.3% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
1.9% |
||
|
23:01 |
GBP |
-29 |
||
|
Jun 29 |
29th-4th |
EUR |
0.6% |
|
|
6:45 |
EUR |
0.6% |
||
|
7:00 |
CHF |
0.81 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
2.5% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.3% |
||
|
13:45 |
USD |
52.7 |
||
|
13:55 |
USD |
74.1 |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 28 09:10 Italy
Jun 28 17:00 US
Click here for further EUR/USD Forecast.
Originally posted here
