By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is moving close to parity, trading at 1.0016, after the US Fed downgraded growth forecasts and on surging risk aversion moves to the USD. Yesterday the HSBC Purchasing Managers Index f showed that manufacturing activity in China fell to a seven-month low. Compounded by a drop in PMI in Europe and increased unemployment in the US, which was followed by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index that showed that activity in that region contracted for a second straight month.

With risk aversion once again the theme of the markets, it is difficult for the commodity currencies to maintain any strength. Australia is dependent upon its trade with China, Europe and the US, which are all weighing down the Aussie

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data actual v. forecast

Jun. 21

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

48.10

48.40

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI

45.3

44.5

44.7

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI

44.7

45.2

45.2

EUR

Manufacturing PMI

44.8

44.9

45.1

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM)

1.4%

1.2%

-2.4%

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY)

2.4%

2.0%

-1.1%

HKD

Hong Kong CPI (YoY)

4.30%

4.30%

4.70%

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders

-11

-20

-17

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.3%

0.2%

0.3%

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.5%

0.3%

0.4%

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

387K

380K

389K

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3299K

3275K

3299K

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.55M

4.57M

4.62M

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

-16.6

1.3

-5.8

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Jun 25

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

343K

Jun 26

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-2.6%

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

64.9

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance

355M

Jun 27

Jun 28

12:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.2%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

-5.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales y/y

5.8%

1:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence

27.1

Jun 29

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

12:30

USD

Final GDP q/q

1.9%

22:45

NZD

Building Consents m/m

-7.2%

23:30

JPY

Household Spending y/y

2.6%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

-0.8%

23:50

JPY

Prelim Industrial Production m/m

-0.2%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit m/m

0.4%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.1%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

52.7

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

74.1

Click here for further AUD/USD Forecast.

Originally posted here