By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
- European and UK economic data
- Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP climbed at the end of the week to close at 0.8048 after a remarkable announcement by George Osborne, and the BoE to work in conjunction to introduce several new programs to help the UK economy.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Change % |
||
|
Jun 15, 2012 |
0.8048 |
0.8119 |
0.8153 |
0.8044 |
-0.87% |
|
Jun 14, 2012 |
0.8119 |
0.8102 |
0.8123 |
0.8084 |
0.21% |
|
Jun 13, 2012 |
0.8102 |
0.8031 |
0.8106 |
0.8024 |
0.88% |
|
Jun 12, 2012 |
0.8031 |
0.8059 |
0.8080 |
0.8012 |
-0.35% |
|
Jun 11, 2012 |
0.8059 |
0.8139 |
0.8139 |
0.8052 |
-0.98% |
The announcement of funding programs from the UK. On Thursday evening, BoE Governor King announced several new measures to help reduce borrowing costs in the UK. These include both a ‘funding for lending’ program that would lower borrowing costs for banks that ‘expand or sustain’ their loans to nonfinancial sector borrowers in the UK and also the deployment of the Extended Collateral Term Repo Facility (announced last December) that will provide banks with liquidity for a term of 6 months, on an ongoing basis. Governor King also stated that these measures could be deployed in concert with additional QE, driving considerable weakness in GBP relative to its peers.
This coming week, will be more about news flows and election results.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic data for the week of June 11 – 15 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 12 |
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
-0.7% |
0.0% |
0.9% |
|
Jun 13 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
USD |
PPI m/m |
-1.0% |
-0.6% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jun 14 |
CHF |
Libor Rate |
|
|
|
|
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
377K |
380K |
|
|
Jun 15 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
74.1 |
77.5 |
79.3 |
Historical:
Highest: 1.2336 EUR on Jun 29, 2010.
Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest: 0.7950EUR on May 16, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 18 |
Day 1 |
ALL |
G20 Meetings |
||
|
Jun 19 |
8:30 |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
3.0% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-2.4 |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.72M |
||
|
Day 2 |
ALL |
G20 Meetings |
|||
|
Jun 20 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
-13.7K |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
MPC Meeting Minutes |
0-0-9 |
0-0-9 |
|
|
16:30 |
USD |
FOMC Statement |
|||
|
18:00 |
USD |
FOMC Economic Projections |
|||
|
18:15 |
USD |
FOMC Press Conference |
|||
|
Jun 21 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
-2.3% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.62M |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-5.8 |
||
|
Jun 22 |
8:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate |
106.9 |
Click here for updated EUR/GBP News.
Originally posted here
