By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0253. The CAD is retracing some of yesterday’s losses leading and is up 0.4% since yesterday’s close. There are no domestic data releases or top tier releases from the US.
Accordingly USDCAD is likely to take its cues from the broader market.
USDCAD is likely to remain above parity in the near-term but should trend lower in the medium term – The path of volatility in the most recent run up in risk is well below either the 2011 or the 2010 bouts of risk aversion and nowhere near the 2008 experience.
However, USDCAD has so far reacted as if it is, suggesting that for USDCAD traders it isn’t all about headline risk from Europe. Risk aversion even appears to be fading, with the VIX off its recent highs and having failed to break violent higher, much of the pricing appears to be increasingly Euro-centric. This is encouraging. For the USDCAD, the deterioration in global growth is a significant concern. Today, the OECD released their latest round of leading indicators, which point to a significant divergence in the economic paths for the major economies. Leading indicators for China and India continued to fall below trend, while Brazil suggests a positive turn and the US, Japan and Russia signal improvement .Oil prices, a key driver of USDCAD, have dropped a shocking 24% since their April highs of $106.43
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 12, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 12 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-16% |
-18% |
-19% |
|
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
-0.3% |
0.4% |
-0.6% |
|
|
JPY |
BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks |
||||
|
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
-2 |
4 |
||
|
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
-0.7% |
-0.2% |
0.9% |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-1.0% |
-1.0% |
-2.6% |
|
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
-1.0% |
-1.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
|
Jun 13 |
12:30 |
USD |
-0.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
0.3% |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
-0.1M |
||
|
12:30 |
CAD |
0.3% |
||
|
Jun 14 |
12:30 |
USD |
377K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.0% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-124B |
||
|
12:30 |
CAD |
1.9% |
||
|
Jun 15 |
12:30 |
USD |
17.1 |
|
|
13:00 |
USD |
36.2B |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
79.2% |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
1.1% |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 13 09:10 Italy
Jun 13 09:30 Germany
Jun 13 09:30 Swiss
Jun 13 17:00 US
Jun 14 09:10 Italy
Jun 14 09:30 UK
Jun 14 15:00 US
Jun 14 17:00 US
Click here for updated USD/CAD News.
Originally posted here
