Highlights based on trading on Monday, June 4, 2012:
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bear Market on 6/4/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 5 months.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,278.18) rose 0.14 points or 0.01% on Monday. Intraday, SPX broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months. The SPX closed below its 200-day SMA (now at 1,284.95) for the second consecutive trading day.
SPX has fallen 9.93% since closing at 1,419.04 two months ago, on 4/2/12. The path of least resistance still appears to be down.
NYSE volume fell 16%, thereby denying confirmation of the modest stock price recovery attempt. Volume patterns have been weak, with a tendency toward lower volume on up days and higher volume on down days, indicating the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure.
The following ETFs, ranked by Relative Strength, with the weakest at the bottom of the list, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, thereby confirming significant price downtrends:
REIT Wilshire, RWR
REIT VIPERs, VNQ
Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
Dividend SPDR, SDY
Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
LargeCap VIPERs, VV
LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
Value VIPERs, VTV
MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
MidCap Russell, IWR
Transportation Av DJ, IYT
LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
Value MidCap Russell, IWS
Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
Small Cap VIPERs, VB
MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
Industrial SPDR, XLI
Financial DJ US, IYF
Water Resources, PHO
Financials VIPERs, VFH
Financial SPDR, XLF
Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
Switzerland Index, EWL
Financial Services DJ, IYG
Hong Kong Index, EWH
South Korea Index, EWY
Chile MSCI iS, ECH
Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
Energy DJ, IYE
Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
Energy SPDR, XLE
Energy VIPERs, VDE
Canada Index, EWC
Taiwan Index, EWT
Indonesia MV, IDX
Networking, IGN
China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
Brazil Index, EWZ
WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/30/12, turning systematically bullish. OEX/SPX remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1364.72, 50-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% R of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% R of 2011-12 range
1,284.95, 200-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% R of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% R of 2011-12 range
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 16 months on 5/31/12. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.72, 22.39, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/4/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months on 6/1/12. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell further below its lows of the previous 7 months on 6/1/12. USO still looks bearish on the chart. Systematically, USO remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.76, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/1/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. Absolute price remains systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/1/12. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.09, 28.60, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/4/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, SLV/GLD remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/4/12. JJC turned bearish on 5/31/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.16% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
4.38% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
0.63% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
3.11% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
0.57% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.65% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
0.43% , IGV , Software, IGV
0.88% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.19% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
3.36% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
1.79% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
0.66% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.05% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.11% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
0.50% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
2.04% , HSP , HOSPIRA
2.88% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
1.81% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
0.24% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
1.67% , HD , HOME DEPOT
3.20% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
0.20% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
1.37% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.20% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.78% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
0.48% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
0.99% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
2.59% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
3.05% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.26% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.33% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
2.06% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
1.25% , KR , KROGER
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.51% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-6.32% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.15% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-5.61% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-1.40% , TLAB , TELLABS
-0.55% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.55% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-5.85% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-4.61% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-1.10% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-5.47% , FHN , First Horizon National
-2.84% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-1.62% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-3.50% , KEY , KEYCORP
-2.45% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-0.39% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-1.77% , NE , NOBLE
-0.75% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-0.31% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-0.77% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-2.01% , CMI , CUMMINS
-4.36% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
-0.33% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-0.43% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-1.37% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-1.15% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
-4.04% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-2.91% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-2.70% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-1.16% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-0.47% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
-1.01% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.36% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.38% Spain Index, EWP
3.11% Italy Index, EWI
1.94% Russia MV, RSX
1.79% South Africa Index, EZA
1.40% India PS, PIN
1.39% France Index, EWQ
1.37% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.33% Austria Index, EWO
1.31% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.16% Japan Index, EWJ
1.09% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.06% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
1.05% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.05% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.01% Sweden Index, EWD
0.98% Australia Index, EWA
0.96% European VIPERs, VGK
0.89% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.89% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.84% Belgium Index, EWK
0.84% EAFE Index, EFA
0.81% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.76% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.70% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.66% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.66% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.65% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.62% Mexico Index, EWW
0.59% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.57% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.53% Singapore Index, EWS
0.50% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.48% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.44% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.38% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.38% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.37% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.36% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.35% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.34% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.33% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.30% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.28% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.28% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.27% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.26% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.24% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.23% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.22% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.21% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.21% Energy Global, IXC
0.21% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.20% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.20% Global 100, IOO
0.19% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.19% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.18% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.16% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.15% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.14% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.13% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.13% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.11% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.11% Germany Index, EWG
0.09% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.09% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.08% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.08% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.07% Dividend International, PID
0.07% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.05% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.03% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.05% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.08% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.08% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.09% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.11% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.11% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.12% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.14% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.17% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.17% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.17% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.18% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.18% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.18% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.19% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.19% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.19% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.19% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.20% Canada Index, EWC
-0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.23% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.23% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.23% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.24% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.26% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.26% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.26% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.26% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.27% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.28% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.28% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.31% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.33% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.34% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.38% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.38% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.41% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.43% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.50% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.51% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.55% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.56% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.58% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.58% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.60% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.62% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.62% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.66% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.69% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.69% Networking, IGN
-0.70% Water Resources, PHO
-0.70% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.71% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.76% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.79% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.81% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.84% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.86% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.96% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.01% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.04% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.20% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.20% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.62% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.85% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.46% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
