By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD ended a disastrous week at 0.9700. With risk aversion the theme, there has been no chance for the Aussie to gain on the USD. Although there is a change in the wind, since Friday as investors seems to be shifting to gold as their safe haven and with talk of Fed intervention, the USD may lose strength.
The AUD has been suffering due to a drop in retail sales reported earlier this week.
The Chinese data was just another reason to sell the Australian dollar, which has spent the past two weeks below parity with the US dollar because of market pessimism about the euro zone debt crisis.
Weak manufacturing data from China has increased concerns on the world’s fastest growing economy. Investor sentiments weakened further and led to downside pressure on Asian equities in today’s trading session. US equities also ended lower in yesterday’s trade on the back of poor economic data that suggested the US economy was still on a slow growth trajectory amid the heightening European economic crisis.
US (ADP) Non-Farm Employment Change increased by 133,000 in May from previous 113,000 in April. Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose at slow pace of 1.9 percent in Q1 of 2012 as against a rise of 2.2 percent in Q4 of 2011.
Unemployment Claims increased unexpectedly by 383,000 for the week ending on 25th May as compared to 373,000 in prior week. Prelim GDP Price Index rose by 1.7 percent in first quarter of 2012 with respect to 1.5 percent in last quarter of 2011. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined by 3.5 points to 52.7-level in May when compared to 56.2 percent in April.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Jun 01, 2012 |
0.9700 |
0.9720 |
0.9724 |
0.9583 |
-0.21% |
|
May 31, 2012 |
0.9720 |
0.9704 |
0.9770 |
0.9674 |
0.16% |
|
May 30, 2012 |
0.9704 |
0.9827 |
0.9834 |
0.9698 |
-1.25% |
|
May 29, 2012 |
0.9827 |
0.9816 |
0.9898 |
0.9801 |
0.11% |
|
May 28, 2012 |
0.9816 |
0.9814 |
0.9888 |
0.9812 |
0.02% |
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Major Economic Events for the week of May 28- June 1 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, and the Kiwi
|
Time |
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
Monday, May 28 |
||||||||
|
19:30 |
JPY |
Unemployment Rate |
4.6% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
|||
|
19:50 |
JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
5.8% |
6.3% |
10.3% |
|||
|
21:00 |
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
6.9% |
-9.4% |
||||
|
Tuesday, May 29 |
||||||||
|
18:45 |
NZD |
Building Consents (MoM) |
-7.2% |
-10.0% |
19.8% |
|||
|
20:35 |
JPY |
BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks |
||||||
|
21:30 |
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|||
|
21:30 |
AUD |
Construction Work Done (QoQ) |
5.5% |
3.0% |
-3.4% |
|||
|
Wednesday, May 30 |
||||||||
|
19:50 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|||
|
21:30 |
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
-8.7% |
0.7% |
6.0% |
|||
|
21:30 |
AUD |
Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) |
6.1% |
4.0% |
-0.7% |
|||
|
Thursday, May 31 |
||||||||
|
19:50 |
JPY |
Capital Spending |
3.30% |
1.30% |
7.60% |
|||
Historical:
Highest: 1.1080USD on Jul 27, 2011
Average: 0.9126 USD over this period
Lowest: 0.6007 USD Oct 27, 2008
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 4 |
1:30 |
AUD |
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m |
-3.1% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Company Operating Profits q/q |
-6.5% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
-1.5% |
|
|
23:30 |
AUD |
AIG Services Index |
39.6 |
|
|
Jun 5 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Current Account |
-8.4B |
|
4:30 |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
3.75% |
3.75% |
|
4:30 |
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.5 |
|
|
Jun 6 |
1:30 |
AUD |
GDP q/q |
0.4% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
-0.5% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
Beige Book |
||
|
Jun 7 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
4.9% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
15.5K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
383K |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
||
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Current Account |
0.79T |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Final GDP q/q |
1.0% |
|
|
Jun 8 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-1.59B |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Home Loans m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
Click here a current AUD/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
