Highlights based on trading on Wednesday, May 23, 2012:
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 8 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months, for another a bearish trend confirmation.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months and remains bearish.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell further below its lows of the previous 7 months and looks bearish.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 7 months and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,318.86) rose 2.23 points or 0.17% on Wednesday–but trendlines are still pointing down.
The following ETFs, ranked by Relative Strength, with the weakest at the bottom of the list, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months:
Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
Commodity Tracking, DBC
Chile MSCI iS, ECH
Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
Agriculture DB PS, DBA
India PS, PIN
India Earnings WTree, EPI
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1377.95, 50-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% R of 2011-12 range
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% R of 2011-12 range
1280.38, 200-day SMA
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% R of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% R of 2011-12 range
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 120.60, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 105.85, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance none.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, JNK/LQD remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 4/16/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned down after 3/19/12 and fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, TIP/IEF remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 3/14/12.
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Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 155.57, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/23/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.60, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/23/12. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.12% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
2.53% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
0.81% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
9.47% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
2.74% , TER , TERADYNE
4.33% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
4.37% , BIG , BIG LOTS
1.09% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.16% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
2.31% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
1.69% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
0.37% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.16% , F , FORD MOTOR
1.55% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
3.12% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
1.99% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
0.86% , CLX , CLOROX
0.62% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.64% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
3.18% , NE , NOBLE
1.04% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
1.44% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
3.08% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.09% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
1.04% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
2.90% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
0.73% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
2.07% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.15% , X , US STEEL CORP
1.54% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
1.87% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
0.36% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
6.20% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-17.18% , DELL , DELL
-2.33% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-1.17% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-3.21% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-2.81% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-3.40% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.92% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-2.59% , GLW , CORNING
-2.05% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-0.71% , PID , Dividend International, PID
-1.11% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-1.43% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.63% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-0.96% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-2.18% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
-1.32% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-1.79% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
-1.11% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.82% , EFA , EAFE Index, EFA
-3.36% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-1.62% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-1.31% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-0.32% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-0.61% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-1.20% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
-0.23% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-1.13% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.08% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.98% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.27% , INTC , INTEL
-0.99% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.06% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.98% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.43% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.21% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.19% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.17% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.09% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.03% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.86% Canada Index, EWC
0.77% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.74% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.73% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.70% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.69% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.64% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.62% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.62% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.62% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.58% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.57% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.56% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.56% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.55% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.55% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.54% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.54% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.53% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.51% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.51% Water Resources, PHO
0.46% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.45% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.44% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.43% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.43% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.40% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.40% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.38% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.38% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.37% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.37% Energy DJ, IYE
0.37% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.36% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.36% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.35% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.33% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.26% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.26% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.25% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.24% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.23% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.22% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.21% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.20% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.19% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.19% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.18% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.18% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.18% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.16% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.14% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.14% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.12% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.12% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.11% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.06% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.05% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.05% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.05% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.05% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.04% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.02% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.01% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.00% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.00% Networking, IGN
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.02% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.03% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.08% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.10% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.10% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.10% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.19% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.22% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.23% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.26% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.27% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.30% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.31% Energy Global, IXC
-0.38% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.38% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.44% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.45% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.51% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.53% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.54% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.60% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.63% Global 100, IOO
-0.63% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.65% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.68% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.69% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.71% Dividend International, PID
-0.74% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.74% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.78% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.81% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.82% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.84% Germany Index, EWG
-0.84% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.84% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.88% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.88% India PS, PIN
-0.90% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.94% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.95% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.98% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.98% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.99% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.00% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.01% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.05% France Index, EWQ
-1.05% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.06% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.06% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.07% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.13% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.13% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.16% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.19% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.24% Austria Index, EWO
-1.26% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.27% Australia Index, EWA
-1.39% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.44% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.50% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.69% Italy Index, EWI
-1.69% Spain Index, EWP
-1.81% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.25% Russia MV, RSX
