By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil Crude oil has fallen today to trade at 94.30, after the OPEC oil minister said that the prices were still too high and that OPEC would continue to pump as much oil as required to lower prices.

Oil prices declined for the second consecutive week and have begun a third week moving down, as pressure from weak industrial growth in China countered news that US consumer confidence hit a four-year high. Money managers have cut their net longs in US crude futures and option positions sharply in the week to May 8, trimming them by 81,674 lots, a drop of more than 1/3rd, to 153.725 – CFTC.

Iranian crude oil exports fell sharply again in April and could be down by as much as 1mn barrels per day this quarter, as many countries reduce imports ahead of sanctions that come into effect on July 1, as per IEA.

Three major reasons to make oil prices on a bearish trend are as follows. First one is slow down of China’s (largest oil consumer of World) economic growth. Retail sales have declined to the lowest level in April more than expectation. China’s central bank cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves on Saturday. Secondly, the increasing likelihood of a Greek exits from the Euro-zone. Today market will be waiting for the discussion on Greece bailout by Euro finance ministers in Brussels. Euro is trading weak down by more than 0.20 percent at 1.2891 levels. Third one is top oil exporter Saudi Arabia oil minister wants the prices around $100 and wants the inventory to increase before the demand picks. We expect the above factors will continue to keep oil under pressure throughout the day. On the other side,

Tensions between Iran and the West is likely to keep oil prices high despite a dramatic improvement in world supply and a big build in stocks, the International Energy Agency said on last Friday.

Thus, little pull back on oil prices can be seen. From economic data, Euro-zone industrial production is expected to slow down further in March, which may again weigh on oil prices.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which cover the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins.

Economic Data May 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

May 14

02:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM)

0.3%

-2.0%

-2.5%

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM)

-0.1%

0.3%

0.3%

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM)

-0.3%

0.4%

0.8%

10:10

EUR

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction

5.66%

5.84%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

May 15

06:30

EUR

French CPI (MoM)

0.8%

07:45

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)

-0.1%

09:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.8B

May 16

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus

1.1%

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

3.6K

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY)

2.6%

2.6%

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY)

1.6%

11:00

EUR

Portuguese Unemployment Rate

14.00%

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Click here for updated Crude Oil News.

Originally posted here