By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD fell this week to trade at 1.0019. The USD exerted strength, no more like power over all of the commodity currencies as risk aversion was the key work. The USD and the JPY climbed to recent highs, regardless of the eco data weaknesses as investors ran for cover.
After a difficult week starting with the RBA reducing its key lending rate by 50bps to 3.75 and final statements from the RBA revising growth and inflation rates for 2012, the Aussie could not muster any strength.
This week saw positive employment data as well as housing information, but still the AUD could not push upwards. The pair are trading close to parity at this time.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which cover the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins.
This week’s eco data actual v. forecast. This week it is important to look at all these major events and the compare the results. There were many major releases that affected the global markets not just local and regional.
|
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
7.4% |
3.1% |
-8.8% |
|
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
4 |
3 |
|
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
CHF |
Unemployment Rate |
3.1% |
3.1% |
3.0% |
|
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
2.2% |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
Building Permits (MoM) |
4.7% |
-1.5% |
7.6% |
|
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-19% |
-10% |
-10% |
|
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-1.59B |
-1.40B |
-0.75B |
|
EUR |
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
2.8% |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
|
CAD |
Housing Starts |
244.9K |
204.0K |
214.8K |
|
JPY |
Adjusted Current Account |
0.79T |
0.65T |
0.86T |
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
15.5K |
-5.5K |
44.0K |
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
4.9% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
18.40B |
8.50B |
5.35B |
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
0.4% |
|
GBP |
Mfg Production (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.5% |
-1.1% |
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-2.6% |
-2.6% |
-2.3% |
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
GBP |
BOE QE Total |
325B |
325B |
325B |
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.5% |
-0.2% |
1.5% |
|
CAD |
Trade Balance |
0.4B |
1.0B |
0.3B |
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
-50.0B |
-45.4B |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
367K |
369K |
368K |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3229K |
3278K |
3290K |
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
59.1B |
30.0B |
-198.2B |
|
GBP |
Nat’l Consumer Confidence |
44 |
52 |
53 |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
3.4% |
3.3% |
3.6% |
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-0.7% |
-0.5% |
-0.3% |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Fixed Asset Invest |
20.2% |
20.5% |
20.9% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
9.3% |
12.0% |
11.9% |
|
CNY |
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
14.1% |
15.2% |
15.2% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
-1.5% |
-1.0% |
1.7% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input (YoY) |
1.2% |
1.9% |
5.6% |
|
EUR |
Portuguese CPI (MoM) |
0.30% |
1.20% |
|
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
CAD |
Employment Change |
58.2K |
7.0K |
82.3K |
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.3% |
7.0% |
7.2% |
|
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
2.1% |
2.8% |
|
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.9% |
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
77.8 |
76.2 |
76.4 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY, CNY and USD
|
May 14 |
02:30 |
AUD |
Home Loans (MoM) |
-2.5% |
|
|
May 16 |
01:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
-1.60% |
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
Wage Price Index (QoQ) |
1.0% |
||
|
23:45 |
NZD |
PPI Input (QoQ) |
0.5% |
||
|
May 17 |
00:50 |
JPY |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
|
05:30 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.0% |
Originally posted here
