By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: News from the Euro and Swiss zone. EUR/CHF is frequently chosen for carry trades which involves going long a high-yielding currency (EURO – 3.50%) against a low-yielding one (CHF – 1.50%). Traders earn daily interest fees when holding this pair long (rollover fees).
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Swiss National Bank(SNB)
- Swiss and Euro zone fundamentals
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/CHF drifted downward at the end of the week to trade at 1.2008 as the euro continued to drop to new monthly and current year lows. Even with the SNB floor, it is difficult for the CHF to support the level. The euro has been falling all week while this pair traded in a tight channel between 1.2010 and 1.2020 oblivious to eco data and global sentiment. In Friday’s session the euro bears finally were able to push the euro down a bit more.
It is going to be a difficult week, if risk aversion continues the call of the week.
With political turmoil and disarray investors have moved from the euro and euro associated investments and assets. Problems in Greece, Spain and worries about the new face of the EU, have markets running for cover this week.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which cover the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins
Major Economic Events for the past week actual v. forecast
|
May 10 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
15.5K |
-5.5K |
44.0K |
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
4.9% |
5.3% |
5.2% |
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
Trade Balance |
0.4B |
1.0B |
0.3B |
||
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
-50.0B |
-45.4B |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
367K |
369K |
368K |
|
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
||||
|
May 11 |
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
3.4% |
3.3% |
3.6% |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
Historical:
Highest: 1.5193 CHF on 10 Oct 2009.
Average: 1.3271 CHF over this period.
Lowest: 1.026 CHF on 10 Aug 2011.
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
May 14 |
07:00 |
EUR |
Finnish CPI (YoY) |
2.90% |
|
08:15 |
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
|
08:30 |
EUR |
Dutch Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.90% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.5% |
|
May 15 |
06:30 |
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
0.8% |
|
07:45 |
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.8B |
|
|
May 16 |
09:30 |
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.1% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
3.6K |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.6% |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.6% |
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
Portuguese Unemployment Rate |
14.00% |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 14 08:30 Spain
May 14 09:10 Italy
May 14 09:10 Slovakia
May 14 09:10 Norway
May 14 09:30 Germany
May 14 10:00 Norway
May 15 09:30 Belgium
May 15 09:30 UK
May 16 08:50 France
May 16 09:10 Sweden
Originally posted here
