By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.277 after a week of surprises, moving up from under the 2.00 price to climb back to the expected price of 2.36. Natural Gas is now looking for a bottom, to sit, it has exhausted its one last breath of winter.

Production is down due to the low cost, in order for a producer to make profit, NG has to sell in the 3.00 price range. It was estimated that in 2012 NG would price around 3.55. As many wells are shut down or production reduced, it will reduce supply, but the demand is too low at present to cause much of a market reaction. Perhaps as winter approaches. This might be a good time to look at buying longer term contracts as prices dip. We should see NG continue to price at the 2.25 range, below our earlier expectations of 2.27-2.30

Economic events for May4, 2012 actual v. forecast

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM)

-2.4%

-0.5%

2.2%

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY)

4.2%

1.2%

0.8%

NOK

Norwegian Unemployment Rate

3.20%

3.20%

3.20%

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.3%

0.3%

-0.2%

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls

115K

170K

154K

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

8.2%

8.2%

USD

Average Weekly Hours

34.5

34.5

34.5

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls

130K

175K

166K

CAD

Ivey PMI

52.7

61.0

63.5

Economic Events for May 7, 2012 for the European and US Markets

05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate 3.1% 3.1%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

07:15 CHF CPI 0.2% 0.6%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

10:00 EUR German Factory Orders 0.5% 0.3%

German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.

12:30 CAD Building Permits 7.5%

Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.

WEEKLY

  • Natural Gas Weekly Update
    Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
  • Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
    Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Originally posted here