By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD ended the week at 1.0180 plummeting on negative comments from the RBA and a revision in growth forecast.
This week the RBA announced a reduction in their growth forecast for 2012, stating that problems for the eurozone and exports as well as higher inflation are limiting growth in Australia.
This coupled with the .50bp rate reduction earlier in the week has caused the weakness in the AUD.
Also this week Australian inflation rose 0.3% in April, according to the TD Securities – Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge.. That was lower than a 0.5% increased recorded by the survey in March.
Homes sales weakest in more than a decade -Inflation gauge suggest RBA clear to cut rates -Housing credit remains subdued in March
Major Economic Events for the past week actual v. forecast
|
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
3.75% |
4.00% |
4.25% |
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
54.8 |
53.0 |
53.4 |
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
119K |
177K |
201K |
|
NZD |
Unemployment Rate |
6.7% |
6.3% |
6.4% |
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
365K |
380K |
392K |
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
115K |
170K |
154K |
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.1% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
|
CAD |
Ivey PMI |
52.7 |
61.0 |
63.5 |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD,JPY, NZD and USD
|
May 7 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Building Approvals m/m |
-7.8% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.2% |
|
|
May 8 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-0.48B |
|
9:30 |
AUD |
Annual Budget Release |
||
|
21:00 |
NZD |
RBNZ Financial Stability Report |
||
|
May 9 |
23:50 |
JPY |
Current Account |
0.85T |
|
May 10 |
1:30 |
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.2% |
|
TBD |
CNY |
Trade Balance |
5.4B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-46.0B |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
365K |
|
|
May 11 |
1:30 |
CNY |
CPI y/y |
3.6% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.0% |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
76.4 |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 08 09:15 Austria
May 08 09:30 Belgium
May 08 14:30 UK
May 08 15:30 Italy
May 08 17:00 US
May 09 09:10 Sweden
May 09 09:30 Germany
May 09 09:30 Swiss
May 09 09:30 UK
May 09 14:30 Sweden
May 09 15:30 Italy
May 09 17:00 US
May 10 15:00 US
May 10 17:00 US
May 11 09:10 Italy BOT auction
May 11 10:00 Belgium
Originally posted here
