By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil began to tumble after Wednesday’s EIA inventory report which showed, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 375.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels last week.

Compounded by a disappointing ADP jobs report, crude oil has fallen to 105.17 losing .95 as it continues to fall.

Also today a report showed that OPEC’s crude-oil output continued rising in April, as Iraq offset Iran’s production decline. Crude production from the 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was up by 115,000 barrels a day from March. With reduced consumption, we should begin to see a worldwide glut of oil. Expect to see oil trading under the 100.00 price by the end of summer.

If speculators continue to hold the price of oil at its current levels, the Obama Administration will take action.

Economic Reports for May 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

49.30

49.10

CHF

SVME PMI

46.9

50.5

51.1

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI

46.9

47.3

47.3

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI

46.2

46.4

46.3

EUR

German Unemployment Rate

6.8%

6.7%

6.8%

EUR

German Unemployment Change

19K

-10K

-18K

EUR

Manufacturing PMI

45.9

46.0

46.0

EUR

Unemployment Rate

10.9%

10.9%

10.8%

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

119K

177K

201K

Economic Events for May 3, 2012 for the European and US Markets

GBP Nationwide HPI

Change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide. It’s a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity.

EUR French Industrial Production

It’s a leading indicator of economic health – production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings; measures Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

GBP Services PMI

Survey of purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

EUR Minimum Bid Rate

Measures Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. Short-term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

EUR ECB Press Conference

It’s the primary method the ECB uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.

USD Unemployment Claims

Measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

The Institute for Supply Management measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry. It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

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Originally posted here