EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis April 13, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF is trading is holding at 1.2020 as it continues to push toward the SNB floor of 1.20.

The pair fell again in today’s trading. There was no supporting data from Switzerland today.

The euro continued showing weakness over concerns in Spain and Italy. Markets cannot move away from the negative sentiment, no matter how many times the Spanish government claims they will not need a bailout.

Industrial production across the 17-nation euro zone saw monthly growth of 0.5% in February and fell 1.8% compared to the same month last year, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat reported Thursday.

The European Central Bank reiterated Thursday that it can address upside risks to price stability in a “firm and timely manner.” It also said in the editorial to its Monthly Bulletin that inflation rates in the 17-nation currency bloc are likely to stay above 2% this year, with “upside risks” prevailing.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy reportedly said at a press conference on Thursday that his country will not need a bailout such as that was seen in Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

Italy saw borrowing costs rise on Thursday as it sold three-year government bonds, news reports said. The Italian government sold 2.89 billion euros ($3.78 billion) of benchmark three-year bonds maturing in March 2015 at a yield of 3.89%

Economic Reports April 12, 2012 actual v. forecast

AUD	Employment Change	44.0K	6.0K	-15.4K
AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.2%	5.3%	5.2%
EUR	French CPI (MoM)	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%
INR	Indian Industrial Production (YoY)	4.1%	6.6%	1.1%
SEK	Swedish CPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.5%	1.9%
EUR	Dutch Retail Sales (YoY)	0.90%	0.80%
EUR	ECB Monthly Report
GBP	Trade Balance	-8.8B	-7.7B	-7.9B
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.5%	-0.3%	0.0%
EUR	Portuguese CPI (MoM)	1.20%	0.10%
EUR	Greek Unemployment Rate	21.80%	21.20%
USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%
USD	PPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%
CAD	Trade Balance	0.3B	2.0B	2.0B
USD	Trade Balance	-46.0B	-52.0B	-52.5B
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	380K	355K	367K
USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3251K	3335K	3349K

Economic Events for April 13, 2012

03:00 CNY Chinese Fixed Asset Investment 20.8% 21.5%

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment measures the change in the total spending on non-rural capital investments such as factories, roads, power grids, and property.

03:00 CNY Chinese GDP (YoY) 8.3% 8.9%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

03:00 CNY Chinese Industrial Production 11.5% 11.4%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

03:00 CNY Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 15.0% 14.7%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

07:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.3%

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

07:00 EUR Finnish CPI (YoY) 3.10%

Consumer Price index is the most frequently used indicator of inflation and reflect changes in the cost of acquiring a fixed bask of goods and services by the average consumer. The weights are usually derived from household expenditure surveys. From 1995 the weight structure is based on the European National Accounting System Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP).The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change over a specified period of time in the general level of prices of goods and services that a given population acquires, uses or pays for consumption. It compares a household’s cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period.

09:30 GBP PPI Input (MoM) 1.2% 2.1%

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

13:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.2% 0.1%

13:30 USD CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

14:55 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 76.2 76.2

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.

18:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 13 10:00 Belgium OLO mini bond auction

Apr 16-30 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication

Apr 16 09:10 Slovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds

Apr 16 09:10 Norway T-bill auction

Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction

Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction

Originally posted here