By FXEmpire.com

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis April 12, 2012, Forecast

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis April 12, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD 1.0023 as the USD has been able to remain strong. In Canada today, the housing report showed that those 216K new homes were under construction coming in much higher then forecast. The drop in crude oil prices from a 107 level to close to the 100.00 price has a negative effect on the CAD as Canada is a major exporter of crude to the US.

In the US, the prices paid for goods imported into the U.S. jumped 1.3% in March, mainly because of higher oil costs, the Labor Department said Wednesday. That compared to a revised 0.1% decrease in February.

Shares of the nation’s largest homebuilders rallied sharply on Wednesday after data from a Wells Fargo survey was strong. The firm’s survey of sales managers in 20 markets showed staying power across all categories.

Bullish sentiment fell among financial advisers surveyed in the weekly Investors’ Intelligence poll from last Friday. The percentage of financial advisers who are bullish on the market fell to 48.4% from 52.7%, while bearish sentiment was unchanged at 21.5%.

Markets are waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book, the Fed’s official assessment on economic conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve districts due later today. The report is released exactly two weeks before the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting on April 24-25, the Beige Book report should confirm the signs of consistent improvement in the U.S. economy, lessening the likelihood of more quantitative easing by the U.S. central bank. As long as QE3 odds remain low, the USD should benefit.

Economic Reports April 11, 2012 actual v. forecast

Apr. 11

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

-1.60%

-5.00%

AUD

Home Loans (MoM)

-2.5%

-3.5%

-1.1%

JPY

BoJ Monthly Report

HUF

Hungarian CPI (YoY)

5.5%

5.7%

5.9%

EUR

German 10-Year Bund Auction

1.770%

1.830%

CAD

Housing Starts

216K

200K

205K

USD

Import Price Index (MoM)

1.3%

0.8%

-0.1%

Economic Events for April 12, 2012

06:30 EUR French CPI (MoM) 0.4%

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

08:30 EUR Dutch Retail Sales (YoY) 0.80%

Retail trade is a form of trade in which goods are mainly purchased and resold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased (or following minor transformations).

09:30 GBP Trade Balance -7.7B -7.5B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

10:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) -0.2% 0.2%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

10:00 EUR Portuguese CPI (MoM) 0.10%

The Consumers Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of price change of goods and services purchased by households. It measures changes in the average level of prices over a period of time. In other words, prices indicator of what is happening to prices consumers are paying for items purchased. With a given starting point or base period which is usually taken as 100, the CPI can be used to compare current period consumer prices with those in the base period. Consumer Price index is the most frequently used indicator of inflation and reflect changes in the cost of acquiring a fixed basket of goods and services by the average consumer. The weights are usually derived from household expenditure surveys.

10:00 EUR Greek Unemployment Rate 21.00%

The definition for an unemployed person is: Persons (16-65 years) who were available for work (except for temporary illness) but did not work during the survey week, and who made specific efforts to find a job within the previous 4 weeks by going to an employment agency, by applying directly to an employer, by answering a job ad, or being on a union or professional register. The percentage number is calculated unemployed / (employed + unemployed).

13:30 CAD Trade Balance 2.0B 2.1B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

13:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% 0.2%

13:30 USD PPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.4%

The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

13:30 USD Trade Balance -52.0B -52.6B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 355K 357K

13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3335K 3338K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

Government Bond Auctions April 10-20, 2012

Apr 12 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Apr 12 09:30 UK Gbp 2.0bn 4.25% Jun 2032 Conventional Gilt

Apr 12 15:00 US Announces auction of 5Y TIPS on Apr 19

Apr 12 17:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds

Apr 13 10:00 Belgium OLO mini bond auction

Apr 16-30 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication

Apr 16 09:10 Slovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds

Apr 16 09:10 Norway T-bill auction

Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction

Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction

Originally posted here