By FXEmpire.com
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis April 11, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)
Against USD/JPY the dollar fell ?81.30 against a North American trading level of ?81.55 on Friday. The move into the yen, often viewed as a safe-haven currency, came after nonfarm payroll data released Friday showed a smaller-than-expected rise in March payrolls, of 120,000. Economists had expected a gain of 210,000. Equity markets were closed on Friday, but U.S. stock market futures pointed to sharp losses ahead for Wall Street, which reopens Monday, while gold futures rose and crude-oil futures tumbled.
In Japan the BoJ has begun its two day policy meeting. Markets are not expecting a change but there is always a possibility.
The dollar is dropping to a significant low against the yen, hurting exports.
Chinese CPI rose 3.6 per cent in March from a year earlier, compared to a rise of 3.2 per cent in February.
Chinese balance of trade figures are expected on Tuesday, and gross domestic product data is due on Friday.
Japan reported an above forecast, trade balance yesterday.
Economic Data for April 9-10, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Apr. 09 |
JPY |
Adjusted Current Account |
0.85T |
0.66T |
0.14T |
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
3.6% |
3.3% |
3.2% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
JPY |
Economy Watchers Current Index |
51.8 |
46.5 |
45.9 |
|
|
RUB |
Russian Interest Rate Decision |
8.00% |
8.00% |
8.00% |
|
|
TRY |
Turkish Industrial Production (YoY) |
4.40% |
3.50% |
1.50% |
|
|
TWD |
Taiwanese Trade Balance |
2.36B |
2.19B |
2.83B |
|
|
EUR |
Greek CPI (YoY) |
1.70% |
2.10% |
||
|
EUR |
Greek Industrial Production (YoY) |
-8.30% |
-5.00% |
||
|
EUR |
Portuguese Trade Balance |
-2.88B |
-3.08B |
||
|
USD |
CB Employment Trends Index |
107.28 |
107.47 |
||
|
USD |
3-Month Bill Auction |
0.085% |
0.075% |
||
|
USD |
6-Month Bill Auction |
0.150% |
0.140% |
||
|
Apr. 10 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-10% |
-12% |
-13% |
|
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
||||
|
AUD |
AIG Construction Index |
36.2 |
35.6 |
||
|
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
3 |
1 |
||
|
MYR |
Malaysian Trade Balance |
10.58B |
9.20B |
8.75B |
|
|
MYR |
Malaysian Industrial Production (YoY) |
7.5% |
6.5% |
0.3% |
Economic Events for April, 11, 2012
02:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM) -3.5% -1.2%
Home Loans record the change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes. It is a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.
13:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 0.8% 0.4%
The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance -201.5B -232.0B
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus; a negative number indicates a deficit.
Government Bond Auctions April 10-20, 2012
Apr 11 09:10 Italy BOT auction
Apr 11 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn new Jul 2022 Bund
Apr 11 09:10 Sweden Sek 5.0bn Jul 2012 & Sek 5.0bn Sep 2012 T-bills
Apr 11 09:30 Swiss Bond auction
Apr 11 09:30 UK Gbp 4.5bn 1.0% Sep 2017 Conventional Gilt
Apr 11 10:00 Norway Details T-bill auction on Apr 16
Apr 11 14:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on Apr 18
Apr 11 17:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Apr 12 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Apr 12 09:30 UK Gbp 2.0bn 4.25% Jun 2032 Conventional Gilt
Apr 12 15:00 US Announces auction of 5Y TIPS on Apr 19
Apr 12 17:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds
Apr 13 10:00 Belgium OLO mini bond auction
Apr 16-30 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication
Apr 16 09:10 Slovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds
Apr 16 09:10 Norway T-bill auction
Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction
Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills
Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz
Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25
Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction
Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029
Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction
Apr 19 15:00 US Announces 2Y Notes on Apr 24, 5Y Notes on Apr 25 & 7Y Notes on Apr 26
Apr 19 17:00 US Auctions 5Y TIPS
Apr 20 15:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Apr 24 & BOT on Apr 26
Originally posted here
