By FXEmpire.com
NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 9-13, 2012, Forecast
Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.
Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD is trading at ended the week at 0.8176.
It was a fairly negative week for the kiwi mostly on the strength of the USD. The pair opened the week at 0.8218 and tumbled hitting a low of 0.8126 late in the week, after the release of the FOMC minutes, which saw the USD flying high. All week supporting strong data was released in the US, showing positive economic recovery.
The kiwi lost the strength of the past week on a lackluster report from China. Chinese PMI reported, reduced factory output reflects falling new business from home and abroad. Combining this with a drop in manufacturing employment at sharpest rate in three years as well as input price inflation was higher, but remains modest overall.
Also in Japan the Tarkan Large Manufacturing Report remained at a -4, showing negative sentiment.
These two reports resulted in pressure on the kiwi as New Zealand is dependent on their imports and exports from these two countries.
There was little in the way of supporting data out of New Zealand this past week.
Traders are betting the RBA will cut 84 basis points from the 4.25 percent target cash rate in the next 12 months according to the Overnight Index Swap curve, while at the same time expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will add 26 basis points to its 2.5 percent official cash rate over the same period.
|
04/06/2012 |
0.8176 |
0.8156 |
0.8181 |
0.8154 |
0.25% |
|
04/05/2012 |
0.8156 |
0.8156 |
0.8188 |
0.8126 |
0.00% |
|
04/04/2012 |
0.8158 |
0.8165 |
0.8182 |
0.8125 |
-0.09% |
|
04/03/2012 |
0.8166 |
0.8247 |
0.8263 |
0.8166 |
-0.98% |
|
04/02/2012 |
0.8247 |
0.8218 |
0.8256 |
0.8186 |
0.35% |
|
04/01/2012 |
0.8218 |
0.8238 |
0.8246 |
0.8218 |
-0.24% |
Historical
Highest: 0.8816 USD on 31 Jul 2011.
Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.
Lowest: 0.6619 USD on 07 Jun 2010.
Economic Data for the week of April 2-6, 2012 for the Yen, the Aussie and the Kiwi actual v. forecast
|
Apr. 02 |
KRW |
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
3.1% |
3.1% |
|
JPY |
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index |
-4 |
-1 |
-4 |
|
|
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
-7.8% |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
|
INR |
Indian Trade Balance |
-15.2B |
-13.0B |
-14.8B |
|
|
Apr. 03 |
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
4.25% |
4.25% |
4.25% |
|
|
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
||||
|
Apr. 04 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-0.48B |
1.00B |
-0.97B |
Economic Data from the USA for the week of April 2-6, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Apr. 02 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
53.4 |
53.0 |
52.4 |
|
Apr. 03 |
USD |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
|||
|
Apr. 04 |
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
209K |
200K |
230K |
|
Apr. 05 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
357K |
355K |
363K |
|
Apr. 06 |
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
120K |
203K |
240K |
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.3% |
8.3% |
Economic Events: (GMT)
Economic Highlights of the coming week for the USA (only minor reports, a very light week)
|
Apr. 9 |
15:00 |
USD |
CB Employment Trends Index |
107.50 |
|
Apr 10 |
12:30 |
USD |
NFIB Small Business Optimism |
94.3 |
|
13:55 |
USD |
Redbook (MoM) |
0.70% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
Wholesale Inventories (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
|
15:00 |
USD |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism |
47.5 |
|
|
21:30 |
USD |
API Weekly Crude Stock |
7.85M |
|
|
21:30 |
USD |
API Weekly Gasoline Stock |
-4.46M |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Yen, the Aussie and the Kiwi.
|
Apr. 10 |
02:30 |
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
1 |
|
23:00 |
NZD |
NZIER Business Confidence |
||
|
Apr. 11 |
02:30 |
AUD |
Home Loans (MoM) |
-1.2% |
|
Apr. 12 |
02:30 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
-15.4K |
|
02:30 |
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.2% |
Originally posted here
