By FXEmpire.com
GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 9-13, 2012, Forecast
Introduction: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve
- High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher
Analysis and Recommendation:
The GBP/USD passed and held above the 1.60 level for two days, but could not sustain against the strength of the USD after the release of the FOMC minutes on Tuesday. The greenback surged against all of its partners.
Strong data from the US flowed all week, until a disappointing NFP report after the markets had closed for the holiday weekend. The UK is also closed on Easter Monday.
The sterling had several strong reports over the past week but they were mixed with several negatives also, PMI and Service PMI and Housing were over forecast. The BoE maintained interest rates. It was just a mixed bag
Whereas the euro began to tumble mid week on continued worries about Spain and Italy, overshadowed the EU Finance Ministers approval of the new firewall limits.
Disappointing economic data flowed all week. Spain introduced a tough new budget, which incorporated all the austerity measures demanded by the EU, but in reality would be difficult or impossible to implement.
Greece continued in the headlines, as worried about the necessity of a 3rd bailout became news.
|
04/06/2012 |
1.5858 |
1.5829 |
1.5866 |
1.5825 |
0.18% |
|
04/05/2012 |
1.5829 |
1.5903 |
1.5909 |
1.5805 |
-0.47% |
|
04/04/2012 |
1.5903 |
1.5903 |
1.5911 |
1.5834 |
0.00% |
|
04/03/2012 |
1.5905 |
1.6036 |
1.6046 |
1.5892 |
-0.82% |
|
04/02/2012 |
1.6036 |
1.6012 |
1.6062 |
1.5980 |
0.15% |
|
04/01/2012 |
1.6012 |
1.6025 |
1.6028 |
1.6007 |
-0.08% |
Historical:
Highest: 1.681 USD on 17 Nov 2009.
Average: 1.5807 USD over this period
Economic Data from Europe for the week of April 2-6, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
CHF |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.8% |
3.2% |
4.7% |
|
|
CHF |
SVME PMI |
51.1 |
49.5 |
49.0 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
46.7 |
47.6 |
47.6 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
48.4 |
48.1 |
48.1 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
47.7 |
47.7 |
47.7 |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
50.5 |
51.5 |
|
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
10.8% |
10.8% |
10.7% |
|
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
|
Apr. 04 |
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
2.2% |
-0.3% |
-0.4% |
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
55.3 |
53.5 |
53.8 |
|
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
0.3% |
1.2% |
-1.8% |
|
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
|
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
||||
|
Apr. 05 |
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
EUR |
Dutch CPI (YoY) |
2.50% |
2.20% |
2.50% |
|
|
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.3% |
-0.6% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
-1.0% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
GBP |
BOE QE Total |
325B |
325B |
325B |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
0.1% |
0.0% |
Economic Reports from the USA for the week of April 2-6, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Apr. 02 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
53.4 |
53.0 |
52.4 |
|
Apr. 03 |
USD |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
|||
|
Apr. 04 |
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
209K |
200K |
230K |
|
Apr. 05 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
357K |
355K |
363K |
|
Apr. 06 |
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
120K |
203K |
240K |
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.3% |
8.3% |
Economic Events
Economic Highlights of the coming week for the USA (only minor reports, a very light week)
|
Apr. 9 |
15:00 |
USD |
CB Employment Trends Index |
107.50 |
|
Apr 10 |
12:30 |
USD |
NFIB Small Business Optimism |
94.3 |
|
13:55 |
USD |
Redbook (MoM) |
0.70% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
Wholesale Inventories (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
|
15:00 |
USD |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism |
47.5 |
|
|
21:30 |
USD |
API Weekly Crude Stock |
7.85M |
|
|
21:30 |
USD |
API Weekly Gasoline Stock |
-4.46M |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, the GBP and the Franc
|
Apr. 10 |
00:01 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-13% |
|
06:45 |
CHF |
Unemployment Rate |
3.1% |
|
|
Apr. 12 |
06:30 |
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
08:30 |
EUR |
Dutch Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.80% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-7.5B |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Portuguese CPI (MoM) |
0.10% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Greek Unemployment Rate |
21.00% |
|
|
Apr. 13 |
07:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
07:00 |
EUR |
Finnish CPI (YoY) |
3.10% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
2.1% |
Originally posted here
