By FXEmpire.com
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis April 3, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD fell in today’s session ending at 1.3323. The greenback was able to mount pressure on the euro on strong economic data. The ISM Economic research indicates that measures of global output may be behind the recent strength in U.S. inflation, said James Bullard, the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Bullard made the remarks in a speech.
The manufacturers report is considered a gauge that measures the strength of the manufacturing sector, produced by the Institute for Supply Management, rose to 53.4% last month from 52.4% in February. Reading over 50% indicates that more manufacturers are expanding than contracting.
Economic research indicates that measures of global output may be behind the recent strength in U.S. inflation, said James Bullard, the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Bullard made the remarks in a speech.
A gauge that measures the strength of the manufacturing sector, produced by the Institute for Supply Management, rose to 53.4% last month from 52.4% in February. Reading over 50% indicates that more manufacturers are expanding than contracting.
In the eurozone ISM reports were release for several of the larger manufacturing countries. The data showed Eurozone March final manufacturing PMI 47.7, French March final manufacturing PMI 46.7,Italian March manufacturing PMI 47.9, Spain March manufacturing PMI 44.5 Down from 45.0 in February and lowest read since December. Irish manufacturing PMI rises to 51.5 in March and Swiss March PMI 51.1 stronger than Reuter’s median forecast of 49.5.
Swiss February retail sales fell from 4.7% in January.
The head of Germany’s Ifo economic research institute, Hans-Werner Sinn, sees no end to the Eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis. “One has to fear that the current account deficits will remain for a longer time and that the debt crisis in the southern [European] states will worsen again,” Sinn told German business weekly Wirtschaftswoche in an interview published today.
The final straw for the euro was the Eurozone unemployment, which showed Eurozone February unemployment increased to 10.8 % as expected from 10.7% in January.
Economic Data for April 2, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
00:00 |
KRW |
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
3.1% |
3.1% |
|
00:50 |
JPY |
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index |
-4 |
-1 |
-4 |
|
02:30 |
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
-7.8% |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
06:05 |
INR |
Indian Trade Balance |
-15.2B |
-13.0B |
-14.8B |
|
08:00 |
DKK |
Danish Retail Sales (YoY) |
-0.5% |
-1.7% |
-3.3% |
|
08:15 |
CHF |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.8% |
3.2% |
4.7% |
|
08:30 |
CHF |
SVME PMI |
51.1 |
49.5 |
49.0 |
|
08:50 |
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
46.7 |
47.6 |
47.6 |
|
08:55 |
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
48.4 |
48.1 |
48.1 |
|
09:00 |
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
47.7 |
47.7 |
47.7 |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
50.5 |
51.5 |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
10.8% |
10.8% |
10.7% |
|
15:00 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
53.4 |
53.0 |
52.4 |
Economic Events scheduled for April 3, 2012 that affect the European and American Markets
T.B.D GBP Halifax House Price Index (MoM) -0.3% -0.5%
The Halifax House Price Index measures the change in the price of homes and properties financed by Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), one of the U.K.’s largest mortgage lenders. It is a leading indicator of health in the housing sector.
10:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) -0.3% -0.3%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.
19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of future interest rate decisions.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Apr 03 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Apr 03 09:30 UK Conventional Gilt Auction
Apr 04 08:30 Spain Bono auction
Apr 04 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 11
Apr 05 08:50 France OAT auction
Apr 05 15:00 US Announces auctions
Apr 05 15:30 Italy Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12
Originally posted here
