AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 4, 2012 Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The AUD/USD is higher after a morning of quiet trade as traders await the central bank’s interest rate decision at 1430.

The Aussie was trading at 104.33 US cents, up from 104.07 cents on Monday.

The Australian currency got a boost overnight after the release of encouraging manufacturing data from the US.

US manufacturing activity rose in March and a measure of manufacturing employment rose to a nine-month high.

The market is now awaiting the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) board meeting and interest rate decision.

Just In: The Australian dollar fell after Australia’s central bank decided to leave the cash rate on hold.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the cash rate at 4.25 per cent after its April board meeting on today.

The Aussie was trading at 104.55 US cents just before the decision was announced, and fell to 104.15 US cents by immediately thereafter.

The AUD finished Monday’s local session at 104.07 US cents.

Economic Reports for April 3, 2012 actual v. forecast (Asian Session)

Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Monetary Base (YoY)	-0.2%	12.6%	11.3%
JPY	Average Cash Earnings (YoY)	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%

Economic Data for April 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

KRW	South Korean CPI (YoY)	2.6%	3.1%	3.1%
JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	-4	-1	-4
AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	-7.8%	0.3%	1.1%
INR	Indian Trade Balance	-15.2B	-13.0B	-14.8B
DKK	Danish Retail Sales (YoY)	-0.5%	-1.7%	-3.3%
CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	0.8%	3.2%	4.7%
CHF	SVME PMI	51.1	49.5	49.0
EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	46.7	47.6	47.6
EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	48.4	48.1	48.1
EUR	Manufacturing PMI	47.7	47.7	47.7
GBP	Manufacturing PMI	52.1	50.5	51.5
EUR	Unemployment Rate	10.8%	10.8%	10.7%
USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	53.4	53.0	52.4

Economic Data Monday April 4, 2012 actual v. forecast that affects the NZD, AUD, and JPY

02:30 AUD Trade Balance 1.00B -0.67B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

13:00 USD Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (January 2009 – January 2013) is to speak. He speaks frequently on a broad range of subjects and his speeches are often used to signal policy shifts to the public and to foreign governments.

13:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 200K 216K

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 57.0 57.3

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI ) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector. On the index, a level above 50 indicates expansion; below indicates contraction.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 03 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Apr 03 09:30 UK Conventional Gilt Auction

Apr 04 08:30 Spain Bono auction

Apr 04 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05 08:50 France OAT auction

Apr 05 15:00 US Announces auctions

Apr 05 15:30 Italy Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

Originally posted here