By FXEmpire.com
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 27, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: (close of the Asian session)
The NZD/USD no matter how hard it tries to break up, the kiwi just seems to have bad timing. The pair is currently trading at 0.8160 after opening at 0.8174
Two strong economic reports were released today, which should have sent the kiwi upwards.
New Zealand’s trade balance was back in surplus in February, though the government statistician said weaker than expected imports and exports may have been impacted by escalating industrial action around the country.
The trade balance was a surplus of $161 million in February, turning from a revised deficit of $159 million a month earlier, according to Statistics New Zealand.
That was in line with the predicted surplus of $153 million in a Reuter’s survey of economists.
Exports fell 6.9% to $3.59 billion while imports dropped 6.6% to $3.43 billion – short of expectations of $4.01 billion and $3.65 billion respectively.
A new survey shows economic confidence dipped in the first three months of the year, with a gap between the major dairy production areas and the rest of the country.
The quarterly Westpac McDermott Miller Regional Economic Confidence survey showed net confidence fell from 6% positive at the end of 2011 to 3% in the March survey.
The figures in the survey represent the net difference between those who expected good or bad economic times in their region over the coming year, with a score of zero representing a balance between optimists and pessimists.
Except continued worries over the overall slowing of Pacific nations and new worries about Spain, gave the USD additional power, not allowing the kiwi to move upwards.
Economic Data Affecting the JPY, AUD or NZD from March 23 – 26, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Mar. 25 |
22:45 |
NZD |
161M |
153M |
-159M |
There are no regional economic events affecting the JPY, AUD, or NZD on March 27, 2012
All Day G7 Meeting
The G7 meeting is the meeting of the finance ministers from the group of seven industrialized nations that are the United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy and Canada. The meeting takes place several times a year to discuss economic policy. Traders should pay close attention to this event as it might bring a new dimension to the markets.
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) (Jan) -3.8% -4.0%
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released by the Standard & Poor’s examines changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 regions across the US. This report serves as an indicator for the health of the US housing market. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence (Mar) 70.0 70.8
The Consumer Confidence released by the Conference Board captures the level of confidence that individuals have in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Generally, a high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.
14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) 18 20
The survey including information on shipments, new orders, order backlogs, and inventories conducted by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond provides information on current activity in the manufacturing sector (mailing 220 business organizations). The industry inflation can be seen from the survey. Generally speaking, a high reading appreciates (or is bullish for) the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish for) the USD.
16:45 USD Fed’s Bernanke Speech
The Fed Governor Ben Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current US economy and the value of USD. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Mar 26 09:10 Norway Nok 3.0bn NST 474 3.75% May 2021 Bond
Mar 26 10:30 Germany Eur 3.0bn new Mar 2013 Bubill
Mar 26 15:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Mar 29
Mar 27 09:10 Italy CTZ/BTPei auction
Mar 27 08:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Mar 27 17:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Mar 28 09:10 Italy BOT auction
Mar 28 17:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Mar 29 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Mar 29 17:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Originally posted here
