By FXEmpire.com

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 23, 2012, Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 23, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continues to fall, trading at 105.44 down 1.83 at this writing. The Obama Administration is mustering all the strength and press they can to push down the spiraling price of crude oil, as it wrecks havoc with the US recovery and inflation.

Rumors have once again surfaced of a possible release of the strategic reserves.

With the slowdown in China’s economy and the Saudi’s promising publicly and in interviews to supply all necessary quantities. The price of oil is not responding as it should, price, demand and supply seem to be out of sync.

President Barack Obama on Thursday fast-tracked approval of an oil pipeline, continuing a nationwide tour to promote his energy policies with gasoline prices on the rise.

Speaking in Cushing, Okla., Obama repeated that while domestic oil and gas production is on the rise, it’s not enough to lower gasoline prices because the U.S. imports much of the oil it consumes.

Obama kept mum about a possible release from strategic reserves.

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Economic Reports March 22, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Mar. 22

JPY

Trade Balance

-0.31T

-0.34T

-0.49T

CHF

Trade Balance

2.68B

1.90B

1.50B

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI

47.6

50.5

50.0

EUR

French Services PMI

50.0

50.6

50.0

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI

48.1

51.1

50.2

EUR

German Services PMI

51.8

53.1

52.8

EUR

Manufacturing PMI

47.7

49.6

49.0

EUR

Services PMI

48.7

49.3

48.8

EUR

Spanish industrial New Orders (YoY)

0.5%

-2.0%

-3.5%

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.8%

-0.5%

0.3%

EUR

Industrial New Orders (MoM)

-2.3%

-2.1%

3.5%

BRL

Brazilian Unemployment Rate

5.7%

5.7%

5.5%

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.5%

0.5%

0.3%

CAD

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.5%

1.8%

0.0%

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

348K

350K

353K

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3352K

3390K

3361K

Economic Events for March 23, 2012

01:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 49 47

Nationwide Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism

10:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 39.1K 38.1K

The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved by BBA-backed banks during the previous month. It includes more than half of the total U.K. mortgage market. It provides information about the buyers in the housing market in the U.K.

12:00 CAD Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.2%

12:00 CAD CPI (MoM) 0.5% 0.4%

CPI and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

15:00 USD New Home Sales 325K 321K

New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Mar 23 10:10 Sweden

Mar 23 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Mar 27 & BOT on Mar 28

Mar 26 09:10 Norway Nok 3.0bn NST 474 3.75% May 2021 Bond

Mar 26 10:30 Germany Eur 3.0bn new Mar 2013 Bubill

Mar 26 15:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Mar 29

Mar 27 09:10 Italy CTZ/BTPei auction

Mar 27 08:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction

Mar 27 17:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Mar 28 09:10 Italy BOT auction

Mar 28 17:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes

Mar 29 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 29 17:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Originally posted here