By FXEmpire.com
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis March 20, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is currently exchanging hands at 1.5908 up +.0064. It has been an amazing day for the Sterling climbing most of the day, with virtually no supportive news or data. The House Price Index came in at 1.6% much lower than last month. Otherwise that was it; US Housing market index came in below expectations but matched the previous index.
Investors moved from the USD starting at the end of the US session on Friday and continued today, as they reveled in the positive economic news and the conclusion of the Greece fiasco, investors moved to more risk.
With positive tones from the Fed last week, the possibility of additional money easing became less and less a probability and a whiff of inflation seemed to surface, although that is accounted for by higher gasoline prices.
The markets are void of data this week.
What little there was for the US today showed, the measure of confidence by builders of new single-family homes remained unchanged in March after a slight downward revision to February’s data, the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo reported. Although improvements in U.S. job market trends and an upward revision in income growth are important factors that could help the housing market turn a corner, though rising gasoline prices may pose a hurdle, according to mortgage company Fannie Mae (FNMA)
Economic Data for March 19, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
GBP |
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
1.6% |
4.1% |
|
|
AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks |
|||
|
EUR |
Current Account |
4.5B |
4.3B |
3.4B |
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) |
-7.4% |
-3.8% |
5.2% |
|
CLP |
Chilean GDP (YoY) |
4.5% |
4.2% |
3.7% |
|
Wholesale Sales (MoM) |
-1.0% |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
|
USD |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
28 |
30 |
28 |
|
USD |
3-Month Bill Auction |
0.095% |
0.095% |
Economic Events Scheduled for March 20, 2012 Europe and Americas
09:15 CHF Industrial Production (QoQ)
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
10:30 GBP Core CPI (YoY)
10:30 GBP CPI (YoY)
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
12:00 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions. A level above zero indicates order volume is expected to increase; a level below zero indicates expectations are for lower volumes. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 550 manufacturers.
13:30 USD Building Permits
Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
13:30 USD Housing Starts
Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Mar 21 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Mar 21 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Mar 21 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 4 & 6M T-bills
Mar 22 10:10 Sweden I/L bond auction
Mar 22 10.30 UK Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt
Mar 22 15:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Mar 27, 5Y Notes on Mar
28 & 7Y Notes on Mar 29
Originally posted here
