AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis March 19, 2012 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)
AUD/USD is ending the week fairly even as it closes at 1.0529 after opening at 1.0525.
Earlier in the session the Aussie traded higher as investors moved from the USD to more risk investments.
The Australian dollar had been weighed down recently by the strength of the greenback as well as concerns China’s economy may be slowing. It has been posting lower lows and lower highs all week.
The currency rebounded overnight as the Dow Jones finished higher for the seventh consecutive trading day, while the S&P 500 finished at its highest level since mid-2008, indicating investors were returning to higher-risk assets. But finished even. The Aussie dollar normally does well in that environment should show some strength, but Mondays speech by Governor Stevens holds the key
Released Economic Reports for March 15, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
CHF |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
EUR |
ECB Monthly Report |
|||
|
EUR |
Employment Change (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
351K |
356K |
365K |
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
20.2 |
17.4 |
19.5 |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3343K |
3405K |
3424K |
|
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
101.0B |
29.3B |
19.1B |
|
USD |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
12.5 |
11.4 |
10.2 |
Economic Events for March 19, 2012
02:00 AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens (September 2006 – September 2013) is to speak. As the head of the RBA, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Australian dollar. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Mar 19 n/a Greece CDS Auction
Mar 19 10:10 Slovakia Bond auction
Mar 19 10:10 Norway T-bill auction
Mar 20 09:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction
Mar 21 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Mar 21 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz
Mar 21 10:30 Portugal Eur 0.75-1.0bn 4 & 6M T-bills
Mar 22 10:10 Sweden I/L bond auction
Mar 22 10.30 UK Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt
Mar 22 15:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Mar 27, 5Y Notes on Mar
28 & 7Y Notes on Mar 29
Mar 22 17:00 US Auctions 10Y TIPS
Mar 23 10:10 Sweden I/L bond exchange auction
Mar 23 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Mar 27 & BOT on Mar 28
Originally posted here
